2019年科技预测报告-GP.Bullhound-2019.1-44页_2mb

2019 Technology Predictions Summary

Core Content Overview

This report outlines ten key technology trends expected to shape the global tech sector in 2019, as predicted by GP Bullhound. The analysis covers digital banking, app distribution, employee engagement, retail technology, artificial intelligence, consumer subscriptions, last-mile delivery, the end of the boys club, cryptocurrency growth, and the evolution of the software suite. The report emphasizes the transformative impact of technology on society and the economy, and highlights the importance of balancing innovation with regulation and consumer trust.

Main Predictions for 2019

1. Digital Banking Continues to Rise

• Millennial Influence: 68% of US millennials use smartphones as wallets, driving the adoption of digital banking.
• Traditional Banks Adapt: Banks are investing in digital offerings, including mobile apps and partnerships with fintech start-ups.
• Start-Ups Thrive: Digital banks like Brex and ID Finance are offering innovative services, such as revenue-based credit cards and digital access to banking in underserved areas.
• Challenges Remain: Many digital accounts are unprofitable due to low unit economics, but banks are expanding their offerings to increase cross-selling opportunities.

2. App Distribution Moves Away from Apple and Google

• Revenue Impact: App revenues account for 20% and 18% of Apple and Google's total revenues, respectively.
• Commission Rates: A 30% commission is charged in the first year, dropping to 15% in subsequent years.
• Developer Pushback: Some developers are moving away from these platforms to avoid high commissions, as seen with Epic Games' move from Google Play.
• Emerging Alternatives: A shift in app distribution strategies is expected, potentially challenging Apple and Google's dominance.

3. Employee Engagement Goes High Tech

• HR Tech Disruption: Recruitment, data analytics, and capital management are areas where HR technology is set to make a major impact.
• AI in HR: Artificial intelligence will be used to improve employee engagement, but must be tuneable to avoid institutionalizing biases.

4. Retail Technology Gets Smarter

• Combination of Tech and Social: A new age of retail is emerging, combining innovative technology with the social experience of physical stores.
• Traditional Retail Still Dominates: Bricks and mortar retail accounts for 88% of global retail purchases, showing that e-commerce is not yet a complete replacement.

5. Artificial Intelligence is the End of Repetition, Not the End of Life

• White-Collar Work Transformation: AI will improve working conditions and reduce time-consuming menial tasks.
• Adaptation is Key: Like previous industrial revolutions, humans will adapt to new technologies, creating more flexible and efficient work environments.

6. Consumer Subscription Set to Eclipse Advertising

• Shift in Consumer Preferences: With growing concerns over data misuse and increasing content quality, consumers are showing more interest in reliable paid subscription services.
• Slow Growth in Digital Ads: The digital ad market is slowing, while subscription models are becoming more popular.

7. A Break-Up of an Advertising Duopoly

• Amazon Gaining Ground: Advertisers are moving away from the Google-Facebook duopoly, allocating more budget to Amazon due to its end-to-end service.
• Market Shift: This trend indicates a diversification of advertising channels and a potential end to the dominance of the two tech giants.

8. Last Mile Delivery: Going the Distance

• Consumer Demand: Over half of shoppers under-35 expect same-day delivery, but only two of the top 50 US online retailers offer it.
• Amazon Leading the Way: The company is setting the standard for rapid delivery through its fulfillment centers.
• More Retailers to Follow: As next-day delivery becomes standard, more retailers are expected to focus on last-mile delivery solutions.

9. End of the Boys Club

• Gender Balance Initiatives: The technology sector is shifting towards greater gender inclusivity, with female investors and executives creating more accessible pathways for new entrants.

10. Cryptocurrency Will Grow Up

• Institutional Adoption: 2019 is expected to be the year when institutional capital flows into cryptocurrency, with regulations becoming more favorable.
• Traditional Institutions Engage: Financial institutions are increasingly recognizing the potential of blockchain and are investing in the space.

Key Insights

• Regulatory Impact: Regulations are playing a crucial role in shaping the tech landscape, particularly in areas like cybersecurity and cryptocurrency.
• Consumer Behavior: Consumers are demanding more transparency, security, and convenience from technology, influencing trends like digital banking and subscription models.
• Tech Giants Face Challenges: Apple and Google are encountering resistance from developers and consumers, prompting a potential shift in the app distribution market.
• Fintech and Traditional Banks Collaborate: The relationship between traditional banks and fintech start-ups is evolving, with more collaboration and integration.
• AI and Automation: AI is set to redefine work, focusing on efficiency and flexibility rather than replacing humans entirely.

Expert View: Norris Koppel, CEO, Monese

• Frustration-Driven Innovation: Monese was founded out of frustration with the difficulty of opening a bank account in a new country.
• Global Banking Solution: The company provides a globally connected, portable banking service that allows customers to access financial products across multiple countries.
• Partnership with Traditional Banks: As fintech grows, traditional banks are beginning to collaborate with start-ups like Monese, recognizing their value in the market.
• Future Outlook: Some traditional banks may relinquish control and partner with fintech firms, while others will maintain their product offerings and customer-facing presence.

Methodology

• The report is based on extensive research and analysis of current trends and innovations in the global tech sector.
• Predictions are informed by market data, expert opinions, and the evolving landscape of technology and business.