2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Canada_Selected_Issues_40页_1mb

Canada: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document is a selected issues paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff on Canada, published in January 2015. It provides an analysis of Canada's non-energy export performance post-crisis, the neutral rate of interest in a small open economy, and the design of a new fiscal rule for Canada. The report is intended as background for periodic consultations with the member country and is based on data available up to January 14, 2015.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Non-Energy Export Performance Post-Crisis

• Post-Crisis Recovery: Canada's non-energy exports showed a strong rebound from the 2009 crisis but failed to maintain the growth momentum, ending up about 8% below the pre-crisis peak in volume terms by 2014:Q1.
• U.S. Dominance: The U.S. accounts for about 75% of Canada's merchandise exports, and weak U.S. demand was a major factor in the sluggish recovery.
• Exchange Rate Impact: The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 20% in real terms from 2009–2011, which dampened export growth.
• Sectoral Differences:
  • Outperformers: Motor vehicles and parts, forestry products, food, and other non-manufacturing sectors showed strong growth.
  • Underperformers: Machinery, computers, and transportation equipment (excluding motor vehicles) lagged significantly.
• Structural Breaks: 13 products experienced structural breaks during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), accounting for about 57% of total non-energy exports. These breaks indicate a shift in export dynamics post-crisis.
• Elasticities:
  • U.S. business investment and non-U.S. demand were significant drivers of growth.
  • The REER became a more important determinant of export performance after the crisis.
  • Elasticities with respect to U.S. consumption and non-U.S. demand increased post-crisis.
• Caveats: The analysis ignores supply-side factors and is limited by data availability. It assumes Canada is a small open economy, which may not fully reflect its size in the global economy.

2. Neutral Rate of Interest

• Context and Motivation: The paper explores the neutral rate of interest in a small open economy like Canada, which is important for assessing the stance of monetary policy.
• Methodology: It uses a structural model to estimate the neutral rate, incorporating factors like real interest rates, productivity, and inflation.
• Main Results: The analysis shows that the neutral rate has been influenced by structural changes in the economy and global conditions, and that monetary policy should account for these dynamics.
• Conclusion: The neutral rate is not constant and must be reassessed in light of new economic conditions.

3. Anchoring Sustainable Fiscal Policy

• Why a Fiscal Rule?: Canada needs a fiscal rule to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, especially given the volatile nature of its economy and the potential for large fiscal deficits.
• Fiscal Rule Framework: The paper suggests a fiscal rule with a debt-based error correction mechanism, which allows for flexibility in response to economic shocks.
• Design Features: The proposed fiscal rule should include clear targets, monitoring mechanisms, and escape clauses to account for exceptional circumstances.
• Supporting Institutions: Strong institutions are necessary to enforce fiscal discipline and ensure the rule's effectiveness.
• Conclusion: Implementing a fiscal rule is essential for Canada to maintain fiscal sustainability and ensure macroeconomic stability.

Structure and Methodology

• Model-Based Assessment: The paper uses a standard export demand equation to assess the performance of 23 non-energy export products.
• Structural Breaks: It employs the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) method to identify potential structural changes in export performance.
• Data Sources: Data is sourced from Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada, and the U.N. Comtrade Database. The analysis includes both volume and value terms.

Key Findings

• Aggregate Performance: Canada's non-energy exports grew at 19.8% from 2009:Q1 to 2013:Q4, outperforming the model benchmark by 8 percentage points.
• Product-Level Performance:
  • Outperformers: Logs, pulpwood, passenger cars, food, and other non-manufacturing products.
  • Underperformers: Computers, industrial machinery, and transportation equipment.
• Elasticity Trends:
  • The REER became more important in determining export performance post-crisis.
  • U.S. business investment and non-U.S. demand were key drivers of growth.
  • The J-curve effect may have contributed to the delayed response of exports to REER fluctuations.
• Future Research: The paper suggests that other factors, such as supply-side issues, may also be responsible for the disappointing export performance and should be explored further.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the importance of considering both demand-side and supply-side factors in assessing Canada's export performance post-crisis. It also underscores the need for a well-designed fiscal rule to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and recommends further research into the factors affecting export performance.