洛伊国际政策研究所-中国对东南亚大陆基础设施和影响力的追求（英）-2021.6_48页_4mb

Jagged Sphere: China’s Quest for Infrastructure and Influence in Mainland Southeast Asia

Core Content

This paper, authored by Greg Raymond and published by the Lowy Institute in June 2021, explores China's growing influence in mainland Southeast Asia through infrastructure projects and economic integration. It emphasizes the strategic and geoeconomic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in the region.

Main Points

• China's Strategic Imperatives: China has strong strategic interests in developing land routes to the sea, especially through the Mekong subregion. Its infrastructure network, including roads, railroads, and waterways, is increasingly linked to mainland Southeast Asia, reshaping the region's economic and strategic geography.

• Mekong Region Overview: The Mekong region includes Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is characterized by a stark economic and political asymmetry between China and the smaller, less developed Mekong states, which are often referred to as Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

• Infrastructure as a Tool of Influence: Infrastructure projects are seen as a means for China to exert economic and political influence. These projects, such as the Laos–China railway and SEZs, are part of China's broader geoeconomic strategy to secure access to the sea and reorient global supply chains.

• Regional Variability in China's Influence: While Laos and Cambodia are more receptive to Chinese investment and infrastructure, Thailand and Vietnam are more cautious. Thailand and Vietnam, with their stronger governance and strategic autonomy, are resisting full integration into a Chinese sphere of influence.

• ASEAN and Geopolitical Competition: ASEAN has historically played a role in promoting regional integration and connectivity. However, as China's influence grows, so does the competition with other external actors, such as Japan, the United States, and India.

• Geoeconomic Competition Era: The paper argues that the world is entering an era of geoeconomic competition, where economic power is used as a tool of statecraft. China's BRI is a prime example of this trend, aiming to secure economic dominance and strategic control in the Indo-Pacific region.

Key Information

• Infrastructure Investment Needs: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that mainland Southeast Asia requires over $184 billion in annual infrastructure investment, which is expected to rise with climate change considerations.

• BRI Projects in the Mekong Subregion:

  • Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIMEC): Focuses on Myanmar.
  • China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor (CICPEC): Involves Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia.

• Special Economic Zones (SEZs): China has established SEZs in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, which have led to increased Chinese presence and, in some cases, the erosion of local sovereignty.

• ASEAN Connectivity Initiatives: The ASEAN Master Plan on Connectivity (MPAC) and the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) have been key frameworks for regional integration. The BRI builds on these initiatives, with the aim of improving transport and economic linkages.

• Challenges and Progress:

  • Road and Rail Connectivity: Progress on transport corridors has been uneven. The Laos–China railway is a major milestone, but the Singapore–Kunming rail link (SKRL) remains incomplete due to Thailand's reluctance to fully integrate.
  • Myanmar's Projects: Progress is slow due to ongoing conflict and political instability.

• The "Jagged Sphere" Concept: China's influence in mainland Southeast Asia is described as "jagged" — not uniform or total. Stronger states like Thailand and Vietnam are resisting full integration, which limits the extent of China's influence.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while China's infrastructure investments and SEZs have significantly increased its presence in mainland Southeast Asia, the region is not entirely under Chinese influence. Thailand and Vietnam, in particular, are maintaining their autonomy and resisting the full integration into a Chinese sphere. As a result, the region remains a complex and contested space, where economic development and sovereignty are in constant tension. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers seeking to navigate the evolving geoeconomic landscape of the Indo-Pacific.