战略与国际研究中心-Afghanistan-Where-Things-Stand_87页_1mb

ABC News/BBC/ARD Polls in Afghanistan Summary

Core Content

The document presents the findings of a series of ABC News/BBC/ARD polls conducted in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2009, with the latest poll from December 11–23, 2009. These polls aim to assess public sentiment, security perceptions, and development progress across various provinces and regions. The methodology involves national, area-probability samples, with random selection and in-person interviews. The sample is weighted to reflect the population distribution by province and sex, using CSO population projections.

Main Polling Methodology

• Sampling Points: 194 random sampling points, stratified by urban and rural areas, with PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) to district and SRS (Simple Random Sampling) at the settlement level.
• Field Work: Conducted by ACSOR, a subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc. with 168 Afghan interviewers.
• Interview Length: Average of 32 minutes.
• Response Rates: Contact rate of 89%, co-operation rate of 97%, net response rate (RR) of 86%, with a margin of error (MOE) of 3 points and a design effect (DEFF) of 1.46.
• Provincial Oversamples: Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, and Wardak.

Sampling Challenges and Validation

• Inaccessible Districts: 11 out of 101 randomly drawn districts were inaccessible due to security concerns, and were replaced by random draws.
• Female Interviews: No female interviews in Paktika, Uruzghan, and Zabul provinces, which together represent 1.7%, 1.3%, and 1.2% of the national population.
• Data Evaluation: The January 2009 data was evaluated without the inaccessible districts, revealing a significant difference in 144 variables nationally, with only 3 in the Southwest showing a significant difference.

Key Findings

• Development and Economic Advances: Positive perceptions in areas with development projects, such as improved roads and infrastructure, and increased government and foreign military presence.
• Security and Civilian Casualties: Continued security concerns, with a notable impact from civilian casualties, particularly in the South and East regions. The perception of civilian casualties was identified as a significant threat to the mission.
• Performance Ratings: U.S. and NATO/ISAF performance ratings were generally low, especially in Helmand and Kandahar, where there was a marked difference compared to the rest of the country.
• Local Security Confidence: Confidence in security from local police and U.S. forces was low, with the Taliban being perceived as the biggest danger in Kandahar.
• Election Outcomes: The peaceful election outcome was a positive factor, with increased confidence in Karzai and the election process.

Regional and Provincial Differences

• Helmand: High perception of U.S./NATO bombing and civilian casualties, low confidence in security from local authorities, and significant negative views of U.S. presence.
• Kandahar: Similar trends to Helmand, with high rates of bombing and civilian casualties, and low support for U.S. forces.
• Balkh: Better security and infrastructure, with a more positive view of the central government and U.S. performance.
• Herat: Positive views on education and reconstruction, but some issues with corruption and defections by police to the Taliban.
• Paktia: Military operations and infrastructure development are ongoing, with a focus on roads and community projects.
• Badakhshan: Improved road infrastructure led to economic benefits, and some Taliban members were detained.

Factors Influencing Public Opinion

• Development/Economic Advances: Projects like road construction and school building are seen as positive.
• Peaceful Election Outcome: Increased confidence in leadership and expectations for the future.
• Diminished Blame for Civilian Casualties: Reduced blame for civilian casualties, especially in the South and East.
• U.S. Commitment: The surge in U.S. forces in December 2009 had a positive effect on some areas.
• Rising Pressure on the Taliban: Particularly from Pakistan, leading to increased military operations.

Challenges

• Security Concerns: Ongoing issues with violence and instability.
• Corruption: A significant concern across the country.
• Regional Disparities: Greater negativity in the South and East.
• Criticism of U.S., NATO/ISAF: Continued sensitivity to casualties and performance.
• Revived Expectations: Optimism about future progress, especially in areas with development and security improvements.

Demographic Profile

• Education: 56% of respondents have no formal education.
• Income: 93% of respondents have monthly incomes under $300, with 57% under $100.
• Electricity Access: 44% have no electricity, 13% own a generator, 15% share one, and 26% have power lines.
• Employment: 81% of men are employed, 7% of women; 64% of workers are farmers, laborers, or artisans.
• Media Consumption: 81% use radio, 47% use TV, 44% use work animals, and 13% have refrigerators.
• Cell Phone Ownership: Increased since 2005, though exact figures are not provided.

Predicting Progress

• Regression Models: Used to predict progress based on variables like ratings of local conditions, rebuilding index, security from Taliban, freedom of movement, and satisfaction with the election and Karzai.
• Positive U.S. Ratings: Predicted by U.S./NATO/ISAF presence, job opportunities, and rebuilding index.
• Support for U.S. Presence: Predicted by rebuilding index and local violence levels.

End Notes

• The document highlights the importance of security, development, and governance in shaping public opinion.
• The perception of the U.S. and NATO/ISAF is influenced by both their presence and the impact of their actions on civilian life.
• There is a clear regional divide in opinions, with the South and East showing more negative sentiments.
• The poll underscores the complex relationship between the Afghan people and foreign forces, with a focus on the need for improved security, economic development, and governance.