2025-06-12-Jefferies-软件与支付的最新动态；与Infinicept联合创始人的炉边谈话要点_8页_119kb

报告摘要

Adoption of PayFac models is hindered by reduced sponsorship (post-Vantiv/Worldpay merger), rising capital costs, and worsening transaction margins/conditions.
While a wave of software companies becoming PayFacs was once expected, limited adoption occurred due to the factors above.
Stripe remains the default Acquirer for many software companies (ISVs), especially startups and developers.
However, Stripe's economics become less favorable for larger ISVs ($50-100M volume) who encounter support limitations and may lack required vertical-specific risk settings/underwriting flexibility.
Back-book migration from legacy referral model Acquirers is challenging due to superior merchant experiences/embedded platforms offering higher attach rates (~30%) and legal/technical constraints, including anti-solicitation clauses from Acquirers like Worldpay.

Launched LaunchPay platform offering an embedded payments solution.
Differentiation: Takes on all payment risk (underwriting, fraud, chargebacks) rather than shifting liability to the ISV (like Stripe). This is crucial for high-ticket or complex verticals.
Highly portable platform: ISVs can transition to full PayFac status or reassign merchants gradually, avoiding lock-in.
Provides tailored underwriting by vertical/merchant profile and human oversight for edge cases missed by automation, offering flexibility for industries needing fine-tuned risk settings (e.g., Healthcare, Field Services).

Stripe is dominant for early-stage, developer-led, or VC-backed companies due to ease of integration.
Infinicept targets more complex verticals where Stripe-type platforms lack customization, human oversight, or risk management capabilities, and where scaling independent of a single platform is advantageous.

Adyen N.V.: Maintains a BUY rating based on DCF, citing risks: slowed volume due to increased competition, macro risks, failed adoption of new products, and tech insourcing threats.
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): Holds a HOLD rating with a $80 price target (approx. 13x FY26 EPS). Risks highlighted are macro, regulatory, and competition, leading to a lowered recommendation.
Global Payments, Inc.: Maintains a HOLD rating with a $75 price target (approx. 5x 2026 pro-forma adj EPS). Risks mentioned are macro, consumer spending, regulatory environment, and competition.

The analysts certify that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal views and that no compensation was/will be received in relation to the recommendations/views in the report.

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