2025-06-17-Jefferies-Block（XYZ）_虚拟炉边谈话要点_借贷增长_Square分销_Cash_App重新聚焦_8页_107kb

Block, Inc. (XYZ) Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $75.00, representing a +16% upside from current price of $64.82.
• Analysts note conservative assumptions due to macro headwinds, but expect multi-year acceleration.

Company Overview
Block, Inc. is a global tech company focused on financial services, operating key platforms: Square (payments and banking for sellers), Cash App (mobile payments and investing), and others like Spiral (Bitcoin-focused projects). Valuation based on ~22x FY26 adjusted EPS, with risks including consumer slowdown, competition, and regulatory issues.

Key Business Highlights

• Borrow Segment: Primary driver for gross profit acceleration in 2H25, due to expanded state coverage (now all 50 states) and improved unit economics. Access to 2H acceleration may still be conservative on attach rates.
• Distribution and Sales Force: Enhanced distribution through a larger sales team and partnerships, leading to share gains in specific sectors. Focus remains on expanding reach to compete better up-market.
• Cash App: Refocus on network density and marketing to drive MAU growth, via improved features like social/P2P links and higher direct deposit limits. However, FY guidance assumes MAU stabilization at 57mn; recovery expected from intensified efforts.
• Square and Cash App Performance: Current growth (e.g., 9.5% GPV Y/Y) lags 2Q guidance assumptions, attributing this to less severe macro conditions than previously anticipated. Borrow and new state loans are key for future upside.

Valuation and Investment Thesis

• Price target driven by growth prospects and network effects in Cash App, with a 2H gross profit acceleration likely materializing.
• Long-term opportunities include leveraging direct deposit ties for Borrow and strengthening Cash App's user base, amid risks of macro uncertainty and competitive pressures.

Risks

• Slowing consumer spend, credit risk, regulatory hurdles, and potential unit economic challenges in emerging markets.