世界经济论坛-快速增长的消费市场消费的未来：东盟（英文）-2020.6-32页_6mb

Summary of the Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN

Core Content

The report Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN, published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Bain & Company in June 2020, outlines the transformation of consumption patterns in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the next decade. It emphasizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of digitalization, and the need for sustainable and inclusive growth in the region.

Main Themes and Key Insights

1. ASEAN's Macroeconomic Context

• ASEAN is expected to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030, with a GDP of $4.5 trillion and a population of 723 million.
• Domestic consumption accounts for about 60% of GDP and is projected to double by 2030, reaching $4 trillion.
• The region is home to a heterogeneous mix of economies, with three groups: developed (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand), emerging (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam), and frontier (Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Brunei).

2. Four Mega-Forces Driving Consumption in ASEAN

• Favorable Demographics: A young, tech-savvy population will drive consumption, with 40 million more people entering the workforce by 2030. The median age in the Philippines will be 29, and in Indonesia 32.
• Rising Income Levels: Annual income growth in emerging ASEAN is expected to be between 6% and 8%. By 2030, per capita GDP is projected to reach $6,600.
• Geopolitical Shifts and Local Regulations: ASEAN will attract foreign direct investment (FDI) as companies seek to diversify supply chains. However, regulatory challenges and protectionism may hinder growth in some countries.
• Digital Tailwinds: Digital adoption is accelerating, with over 575 million internet users expected by 2030. This will enable digital inclusivity, especially in rural and low-income communities.

3. Eight Consumption Themes to 2030

• Consumer Spending Will Double: Driven by the middle-class boom, this will be a major driver of economic growth.
• Blurring Boundaries of Premium and Value Shopping: As consumers become more informed, the distinction between premium and value shopping will diminish.
• Digital Ubiquity Will Become the New Normal: Digital platforms will become integral to everyday life, transforming how consumers interact with products and services.
• Technology-Enabled Platforms Will Tear Down Socio-Economic Walls: These platforms will bridge gaps between different socio-economic groups, enabling access to services and products.
• Local and Regional Competitive Winds Will Prevail: Each ASEAN country will have its own distinct growth path, with local brands and regional competition playing a key role.
• Shoppers Will Move Beyond Omni-Channel to Expect Retail Omni-Presence: Consumers will demand seamless and integrated shopping experiences across all touchpoints.
• Convenience Will Be the New Currency: Consumers will prioritize convenience in their purchasing decisions.
• Health of People and the Planet Will Be Non-Negotiable: Sustainability and health will become central to consumer choices and corporate responsibility.

4. Business Capabilities Required for the Future

• Reset Vision, Mission, and Goals: Align business strategies with the evolving needs of the ASEAN consumer.
• Realign Offerings to the New ASEAN Consumer: Tailor products and services to meet the preferences of different consumer segments.
• Reframe Consumer Engagement: Leverage digital tools and data to create more personalized and interactive experiences.
• Restructure Route-to-Market and Win at Point of Sale: Adapt distribution strategies to the changing retail landscape.
• Rethink Supply Chains as a Priority: Focus on resilient and efficient supply chains to support growth and sustainability.
• Reimagine Operating Model and Talent: Invest in talent development and adapt business models to the digital age.
• Re-envision the Role of Sustainability: Integrate sustainability into core business strategies to align with consumer expectations and environmental goals.

5. Critical Societal Challenges and Calls to Action

• Create Trade and Investor-Friendly Reforms: Enhance regional integration and ease of doing business to attract investment.
• Invest in Socio-Economic Inclusion: Focus on job creation, education, and access to essential services.
• Upgrade Infrastructure for a Connected and Sustainable Future: Develop both hard and soft infrastructure to support urbanization and resource management.

Conclusion

The report underscores the potential for ASEAN to become a major global consumer market, driven by demographic shifts, rising incomes, geopolitical dynamics, and digital transformation. It calls for a coordinated effort among stakeholders to ensure that growth is inclusive, sustainable, and aligned with the evolving preferences of ASEAN consumers. The region's unique characteristics require tailored strategies, emphasizing local adaptation, digital inclusivity, and a balance between technological advancement and socio-economic development.