2006年-ECB欧洲央行_Research_Bulletin_No4_12页_219kb

Research Bulletin Summary

Core Content

This Research Bulletin, published by the Directorate General Research (DG Research) of the European Central Bank (ECB) in April 2006, contains three main articles discussing key economic and financial topics:

1. Impact of VAT Changes on the Economy

   • Analyzes how changes in Value-Added Tax (VAT) rates influence economic activity, price, and wage developments.
   • Uses a calibrated version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) to illustrate the mechanisms behind these impacts.
   • Highlights the importance of agent expectations and the use of additional tax revenues in shaping macroeconomic outcomes.
   • Demonstrates that the effects of VAT changes are both short-term and long-term, with anticipation effects playing a significant role in the former.

2. Global Imbalances and "Excess Liquidity"

   • Examines the hypothesis that global current account imbalances are linked to "excess liquidity" in international financial markets.
   • While the hypothesis aligns with some observed phenomena, such as low interest rates and asset price inflation, it struggles to explain the Asian savings surplus.
   • The article argues that the hypothesis may require ad hoc assumptions to fully account for the observed patterns of global imbalances.
   • Notes that globalization and increased competition may help explain why inflationary pressures have not materialized despite loose monetary policies.

3. Cross-Border Banking and Competition Policy

   • Discusses the growing role of competition policy in merger reviews of cross-border banking activities.
   • Points out that merger reviews in industrial countries are increasingly incorporating competition considerations.
   • Empirical evidence suggests that enhancing competition in banking can improve economic efficiency.
   • Examples from Spain and Italy illustrate the challenges banks face in entering foreign markets and the potential bias of domestic authorities in merger disputes.

Main Points

• VAT Impact Analysis

  • VAT changes affect the relative prices of goods and services, and the real wage and effective labour cost of firms.
  • A one-percentage-point increase in VAT leads to a reduction in consumption and output, with the magnitude depending on how additional revenues are used.
  • If VAT revenues are used to reduce non-wage labour costs, the negative effects of the tax increase are partially offset, leading to better economic outcomes.
  • Anticipation effects are significant when the tax change is pre-announced, as agents adjust their behavior in advance.

• Global Imbalances and Excess Liquidity

  • The US current account deficit is a major feature of global imbalances, supported by low interest rates and high demand for US assets.
  • The "excess liquidity" hypothesis suggests that loose monetary policies have led to a surplus of liquidity in the global financial system.
  • However, this hypothesis fails to explain the Asian savings surplus and the lack of inflationary pressures in those regions.
  • The hypothesis may require additional assumptions to be valid, especially regarding the reasons for excess savings in Asia.

• Cross-Border Mergers and Competition

  • There is a growing trend of incorporating competition considerations into bank merger reviews.
  • Empirical studies suggest that competition in the banking sector can enhance efficiency and economic performance.
  • Several high-profile cross-border banking mergers have faced challenges due to regulatory and competitive dynamics.
  • Domestic authorities may not always act impartially in cross-border merger disputes.

Key Information

• Model Used: The New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) is a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used to analyze the macroeconomic impact of VAT changes.
• VAT Effects:
  • A one-percentage-point VAT increase leads to a 0.29% decrease in output and a 0.27% decrease in consumption in the Euro Area if used for lump-sum transfers.
  • If used to reduce non-wage labour costs, the effects are more positive, with a 0.13% increase in output and consumption.
• Anticipation Effects: When VAT increases are pre-announced, households may reduce savings and increase current consumption, leading to a deterioration in the trade balance.
• Global Imbalances:
  • The US current account deficit has grown significantly since 1997.
  • "Excess liquidity" is a proposed explanation for this, but it does not fully account for the Asian savings surplus.
  • Globalization and competition may help explain the lack of inflationary pressures in some regions.
• Competition in Banking:
  • Cross-border banking mergers are increasingly subject to competition policy scrutiny.
  • Enhancing competition in the banking sector is associated with improved economic efficiency.
  • Examples show that domestic regulators may not always be neutral in merger reviews involving foreign and domestic banks.

Events and Conferences

• Joint Conference of ECB and FRBC: "The Role of Central Counterparties", Frankfurt, 3-4 April 2006.
• 3rd European Central Bank Conference: "Financial Statistics for a Global Economy", Frankfurt, 4-5 May 2006.
• Euro Area Business Cycle Network Training School: "Bayesian Methods for DSGE Models and VARs", Eltville, 5-9 June 2006.
• Conference on Financial Globalisation and Integration: Frankfurt, 17-18 July 2006.
• 7th Workshop of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN): "Estimation and Empirical Validation of Structural Models for Business Cycle Analysis", Zurich, 29-30 August 2006.
• Conference on Financial System Modernisation and Economic Growth in Europe: Berlin, 28-29 September 2006.
• Conference on Financial Integration and Stability: Madrid, 30 November - 1 December 2006.

Additional Notes

• The article also includes a box on forecasting the ECB's inflation objective as a good rule of thumb and a box on a joint conference of the ECB, CFS, and OeNB on "Financial Development, Integration and Stability in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe".
• The NAWM incorporates a large number of nominal and real frictions to improve its empirical accuracy.
• The ECB's research highlights the importance of considering both short-term anticipation effects and long-term structural impacts when analyzing tax policy changes.