20250127-德邦证券-宏观专题_真空期_的八大积极迹象_22页_2mb

报告摘要

Central Economic Work Conference outlook prompts a significant shift in asset prices and economic indicators. We observe a transition between "bull" and "bear" market thinking as stock prices fluctuate, while the onshore renminbi approaches the 7.37 mark and the 10-year bond yield edges toward 16%. This analysis highlights eight positive signs emerging in the new "policy vacuum period" that indicate a stabilization in macroeconomic conditions. Key observations across eight areas are summarized below:

🌱 1. 地方两会积极部署 (Local Government Forum Optimism)

As of January 26, 48-68% of cities reported increases in GDP growth targets and fixed asset investment for 2025, reflecting proactive policy implementation.

🛠 2. 广义财政发力 (Broad Fiscal Expansion)

Policy Banks: Data shows RMB 56.7 trillion yuan in financial bonds issued in 2025, exceeding historical norms.
Credit Bonds: Improved corporate financing, especially for central SOEs, supports infrastructure projects.

♨ 3. 1月PPI Readings Incline (Producer Price Index Improves)

Ongoing sanctions influence commodity prices, with crude oil stability complicating forecasts.
The螺石比 (a ratio indicator) increased to 422 in January, suggesting cost pressures easing.

🎯 4. 春节消费亮眼 (Rising Consumption)

Domestic tourism surged, with入境游 (overseas tourism) raising 70+%.The "3+N" online New Year promotion model boosted consumption.

🏠 5. 房地产景气回升 (Housing Market Improves)

Leading cities saw new home sales growth and home prices stabilizing or rising slightly.一线 & 强二线 cities showing signs of improvement.

🚌 6. 春运出行回暖 (Holiday Travel Returns)

Passenger volumes across railways, airlines, and roads are significantly higher than 2024, indicating a return to pre-pandemic trends.

🌐 7. 中美博弈预期修正 (US-China Relations Relax)

Markets are adjusting for a "measured" US targeting approach rather than tit-for-tat escalation.

💰 8. 资本市场活跃，制度优化 (Stronger Capital Market)

Policies encouraging long-term institutional capital flow into Chinese equities aim to stabilize stock markets, supported by regulatory cooperation.

🧭 资产配置建议

Equity: Strong alpha potential exists in blue-chip stocks and sectors where cyclical and demographic-driven demand is rising.
Bond: 10Y yield expected to remain neutral in fluctuation.
Commodities: Prices may rise due to easing supply-side pressures, especially resource-sensitive segments.