20140831-IEA-Technology_Roadmap_-_Solar_Photovoltaic_Energy_2014_60页_3mb

Vision for Deployment
Solar PV deployment will reach 16% of global electricity by 2050, up from 11% in the 2010 roadmap. The roadmap assumes cumulative PV capacity of 1,700 GW by 2030 and stabilizes at ~400 GW/year between 2025 and 2040. Deployment is leading in China, accounting for 37% of global capacity by 2050. Off-grid systems will expand in Africa and South Asia, contributing to electrification.

Barriers Overcome

• Rapid cost reductions: Module prices fell 90% since 2008, system prices by 66%.
• Geographical shift in manufacturing: Production moved to Asia (China, Taiwan), reducing costs.
• Technological advancements: Efficiency of commercial c-Si modules improved to 22%, with 40% potential for HCPV. Grid codes now address voltage/frequency stability and distributed generation.

Key Technologies

• Efficiency/Costs: Diversifying cell types (HJT, tandem cells) and reducing silver consumption.
• Manufacturing: Scaling silicon production and automation for 3D printing of PV materials.
• Integration: Advanced forecasting, grid flexibility through storage and EV integration.
• R&D: Focus on mass-durable thin films and bifacial modules for varied climates.

Policy Recommendations

• Transition from feed-in tariffs to auctions with time-of-delivery pricing.
• Modernize permitting/interconnection processes, harmonize cross-border grid codes.
• Financial mechanisms: Tailored schemes for developing regions, public-private partnerships.
• Strengthen legal frameworks for feed-in premiums and anti-retroactivity of policies.

Costs and Deployment Economics

• Declining LCOE: $40–78/MWh by 2050. Capital costs reduced 65% by 2050 ($0.3–$0.4/W).
• Policy impact: Germany’s gradual FIT phase-out balances incentives with market exposure.
• Grid parity: Achieved in 12 regions; it drives distributed PV but requires net-metering adjustments for profitability.

Potential for Off-Grid Deployment

• By 2030, mini-grids and off-grid systems could provide 5% of global PV capacity, covering rural and remote areas.
• Banking sector collaboration (e.g., microfinance) accelerates PV uptake in Africa and Asia.
• Solar-electric vehicles (SEVs) and hybrid systems reduce grid reliance and CO₂ emissions.