2024-12-16-世界银行-粮食商品产量增长模式_洞察与挑战（英）_35页_801kb

Yield Growth Patterns of Food Commodities: Insights and Challenges

This paper examines global food commodity yield growth patterns to inform policy decisions on food security and sustainability. Using a calorific-based approach rather than traditional weight-based measures, the study analyzes yield trends across 144 crops representing 98% of global agricultural land.

Methodology

• Utilizes FAO data (1961-2021) for production, area, and calorific content
• Applies Box-Cox transformation to select optimal yield growth model
• Computes calorific-based yield indices to account for heterogenous production patterns
• Assesses structural breaks and non-linear growth trajectories

Key Findings

• Global calorific yield grew steadily at 109 Kcal/ha/year (32.6 kg wheat equivalent) with no significant deceleration or acceleration
• The Big-4 commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans) contributed ~60% to global production growth
• EMDEs showed slight yield acceleration due to productivity gains in LAC, EECA, and SSA regions
• Challenges include climate change impacts, biofuel policies, and limited affordability/access in low-income countries

Conclusions

The calorific-based approach provides standardized measures for comparing yield growth patterns. While global aggregate yield growth remains stable, targeted policies addressing regional disparities, climate resilience, and sustainable intensification are needed to ensure future food security amidst increasing global demand.