CSIS-气候解决方案系列：全球交通脱碳（英文）-2020.7-12页_919kb

Summary of "Decarbonizing Global Transport"

Core Content

The document discusses the challenges and potential solutions for decarbonizing the global transportation sector by 2050, focusing on the role of technology, policy, and private-sector engagement.

Main Challenges

• Transportation Emissions: The transportation sector is the second-largest source of global CO₂ emissions and the largest in the United States, responsible for 24% of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in 2018.
• Emission Sources: Passenger vehicles account for 45% of emissions, followed by road freight (29%), aviation (12%), and international shipping (11%).
• Growth Trends: Emissions are expected to grow due to economic expansion, increased delivery services, and a trend toward larger vehicles. Aviation and shipping are likely to see the fastest growth in emissions.
• Technology Barriers: While electric vehicles (EVs) are the most prominent solution, their adoption faces challenges including high upfront costs, range anxiety, and insufficient charging infrastructure. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) may offer an alternative for long-haul and heavy-duty transport but are hindered by high costs and limited infrastructure.
• Alternative Fuels: These may play a significant role in sectors difficult to electrify, such as aviation and shipping. However, they face challenges in cost, scalability, and environmental impact (e.g., biofuels may have higher indirect emissions due to land use changes).

Key Technologies

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):
  • EVs are becoming more available, with over 7 million on the road as of mid-2020.
  • They are more energy-efficient than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
  • Charging infrastructure is still insufficient, with only 25% of necessary public and workplace chargers in place for 3 million EVs in the U.S. by 2025.
  • EVs can offer significant emissions reductions if adopted widely, but price parity and consumer behavior are key barriers.
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs):
  • HFCVs are not yet widely adopted but may be more suitable for long-haul and heavy-duty transport due to longer range and less added weight.
  • Infrastructure costs are high, and deployment is limited.
• Automated Vehicles (AVs):
  • AVs could reduce emissions if they are electric and promote shared mobility.
  • Without a shift to shared mobility, AVs may increase traffic and emissions.
• Alternative Fuels:
  • Include biofuels, advanced biofuels, and electrofuels made from renewable energy.
  • These fuels are not yet commercially viable or cost-effective.
  • Biofuels, such as palm oil biodiesel, may have higher indirect emissions due to land use changes.

Policy Measures

• Subsidies and Incentives: Governments offer tax credits, rebates, and exemptions to encourage EV adoption. Examples include the U.S. federal tax credit and France's cash rebate.
• Scrappage Programs: These aim to incentivize the trade-in of old ICE vehicles for EVs. Only a few countries have implemented such programs.
• Government Procurement: Governments are using their purchasing power to support EV and alternative fuel adoption, such as China's requirement for 50% of its central government fleet to be electric by 2021.
• Building Codes and Parking Policies: Some cities are incorporating EV charging into building codes and implementing policies to favor EV charging in parking.
• Sales Mandates: Several countries, including California and China, have introduced sales mandates requiring a percentage of vehicle sales to be electric by a certain date.
• Urban Planning Policies: These aim to reduce car dependency by increasing density, reallocating urban space, and promoting mass transit, biking, and walking. Examples include congestion fees and pedestrian plazas.

Private-Sector Engagement

• Automakers: Companies like Tesla, Daimler, and Volkswagen are increasing EV model availability and investing in charging infrastructure.
• Oil and Gas Companies: BP, Shell, and Total are acquiring EV charging companies and investing in alternative fuels.
• Ride-Hailing and Delivery Companies: Uber, Lyft, and Amazon are making commitments to electrify their fleets, with initiatives such as EVgo partnerships and large-scale electric vehicle orders.

Impact of the Pandemic

• Shift in Mobility: The pandemic has led to a decline in public transit usage and an increase in remote work, which may have long-term effects on transportation patterns.
• Policy Opportunities: Some governments are using the crisis to promote mode shifts and decarbonization, such as France's requirement for airlines to replace short-haul flights with rail and the UK's "Jet Zero" council.

Conclusion

Decarbonizing transportation will require a multi-faceted approach, combining technological innovation, supportive policies, and private-sector involvement. While EVs are a key solution for personal and commercial transport, more breakthroughs will be needed for aviation and shipping. Policy and infrastructure development are critical to enabling the widespread adoption of zero-emission technologies.