美国传统基金会-重振国防储备迎接大国竞争时代（英）-2022.1-12页_223kb

Summary of "Revitalizing the National Defense Stockpile for an Era of Great-Power Competition"

Core Content

The National Defense Stockpile (NDS) is a key component of the U.S. defense strategy, designed to provide secure access to strategic materials needed for defense manufacturing and essential civilian industries during times of war or national emergency. The paper highlights the growing importance of the NDS in the context of great-power competition, particularly with China, which is a major supplier of critical minerals and materials.

Main Points

• Importance of Supply Chains: U.S. policymakers are concerned about global defense supply chains due to their vulnerability to geopolitical and economic disruptions.
• Role of the NDS: The NDS is intended to ensure that the defense and essential civilian industrial base has access to necessary materials during conflicts.
• Current State of the NDS: The NDS has significantly declined in value since the Cold War, currently valued at $887.9 million, compared to $9.6 billion in 1989 (adjusted for inflation).
• Material Composition: The NDS contains 42 raw materials, including rare earth elements, metals, ores, and non-metal materials like energetic materials.
• Stockpile Management: The NDS is managed by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), with materials stored in six depots across the U.S.
• Funding Model: The NDS is funded through a revolving fund, where proceeds from sales of materials are used to maintain the stockpile and purchase new materials. However, this model is becoming unsustainable as the stockpile approaches depletion.

Key Information

• Dependence on Foreign Sources: The U.S. is increasingly dependent on foreign-sourced strategic materials, particularly from China, which poses a risk in potential armed conflicts.
• Base Case Assumptions: The DLA uses a "Base Case" scenario to estimate material needs during conflicts, which is classified but loosely defined as involving military conflict and homeland defense.
• Supply and Demand Analysis: DLA planners use economic models to estimate both the demand for materials and their availability, including potential domestic and allied production.
• Vulnerability Assessment: The current stockpile may not be sufficient to meet the needs of the defense industrial base in a conflict scenario due to insufficient quantities and outdated assumptions.
• Funding Shortfalls: The NDS is projected to reach an unsustainable point by FY 2025 due to the depletion of excess Cold War-era materials and reduced sales.

Recommendations

• Independent Review: Congress should request an updated independent analysis of the NDS, ideally every five years, to ensure the stockpile is based on accurate and plausible estimates.
• Expand the Stockpile: The NDS should be increased in size and scope to better reflect the current threat environment and the need for strategic materials.
• Financial Support: Consider a "transfusion" of appropriated funds to the NDS to ensure it remains a viable funding source in the face of increasing demand and limited supply.

Conclusion

The NDS plays a vital role in national defense, but its current size and management practices may not be sufficient for the new era of great-power competition. Congress and the DOD must work together to ensure the stockpile is adequate, well-managed, and properly funded to support the U.S. defense and industrial base during potential conflicts.