世界发展银行-Long-Term-Study-of-PROSPERA-on-Intergenerational-Occupational-Mobility_84页_2mb

Long-Term Study of PROSPERA on Intergenerational Occupational Mobility

Core Content

This study evaluates the long-term impact of Mexico's conditional cash transfer program, PROSPERA, on the intergenerational occupational mobility and attainment of rural youth beneficiaries aged 18 to 35 years. It investigates whether the program's treatment intensity influences labor opportunities and social mobility, and whether factors such as sex, ethnicity, and migratory status affect these outcomes.

Main Findings

• Occupational Mobility: Half of the youths achieved upward mobility compared to their parents' occupations. However, a high proportion of beneficiaries ended up in lower occupational strata, indicating strong occupational inheritance and barriers to social mobility.
• Social Origin Influence: Variables related to social origin, such as the occupation of the parents, have a significant correlation with the occupational destinations of the youths. Despite this, education, cognitive abilities, and first occupation are more influential in determining occupational outcomes.
• Gender and Migration: Women and migrants showed higher rates of upward mobility and greater equality in labor opportunities compared to men and non-migrants, respectively. No significant differences due to ethnicity were observed.
• Treatment Intensity: Higher treatment intensity of PROSPERA may increase the probability of better occupational outcomes, although the effect is considered modest.
• Limitations of the Study: The results are only valid for the analyzed subpopulation and reflect a reduced difference in treatment intensity, not the full effect of the program's intervention.

Key Variables and Analysis

• Ascribed Factors: Social origin (parents' occupation), sex, ethnicity, and migratory status.
• Non-ascribed Factors: Education, cognitive abilities, and first occupation.
• Methodology: The study uses the 2017 Evaluation of Rural Households Survey (ENCEL) data. It constructs intergenerational occupational mobility tables, calculates absolute mobility rates, and applies log-linear models to assess relative mobility and inequality of opportunities.

Context and Background

• PROSPERA Overview: Introduced in 1997, PROSPERA is a key component of Mexico's social policy, targeting poverty alleviation through conditional cash transfers, in-kind transfers, and conditionalities.
• Macro and Social Context: Mexico's economic and social development has shifted over the past two decades, with a focus on privatization, trade liberalization, and labor market reforms. These changes have led to a more segmented and stratified welfare system, affecting social mobility.
• Economic Conditions: The country has experienced low economic growth and a lack of formal job creation, favoring informal employment. These conditions have made it difficult for rural youth to achieve stable and high-status occupations.

Determinants of Occupational Attainment

• Education: Has the highest effect on occupational attainment. PROSPERA has improved educational outcomes, including school enrollment, transition rates, and years of schooling.
• Cognitive Abilities: Play a crucial role in occupational attainment, acting as mediators between social origin and occupational outcomes.
• Social Origin: Influences the opportunities available to youths, though its effect is mitigated by education and other factors.
• Gender and Migration: Women and migrants benefit more from PROSPERA in terms of upward mobility and labor opportunities.

Conclusion

• The study confirms the persistence of intergenerational occupational mobility challenges in Mexico, despite the program's efforts to improve human capital and reduce poverty.
• While PROSPERA has had positive effects on education and some labor outcomes, its impact on occupational mobility remains limited.
• The findings suggest that higher treatment intensity may contribute to better occupational outcomes, but the program's overall effectiveness in breaking the cycle of poverty is still under question.
• The study underscores the need for more comprehensive social policies that address both structural and individual factors affecting mobility.

Methodology and Structure

• Sections:
  1. Introduction
  2. PROSPERA in the Mexican macroeconomic and social context
  3. Conceptual framework of the studies on intergenerational social mobility
  4. Methodological design
  5. Results on intergenerational occupational mobility
  6. Results on determinants of occupational attainment
  7. Conclusion

Implications

• The study contributes to the understanding of how conditional cash transfer programs affect long-term social mobility.
• It highlights the importance of integrating labor inclusion and productivity components into social programs to enhance their effectiveness.
• The results emphasize the need for further research and policy adjustments to address persistent inequality and social mobility barriers.