2005年-世界发展银行全球_East_Asia_Update_November_2005___Countering_Global_Shocks_65页_4mb

East Asia and Pacific Regional Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic and social conditions in the East Asia and Pacific region for November 2005, focusing on growth, poverty reduction, and the impact of global shocks such as oil price increases and the Doha Development Round. It also highlights the regional and international environment, domestic policy trends, and key risks like avian and human influenza.

Main Points

Growth Outlook

• Regional Growth: Emerging East Asia is expected to grow at around 6.2% in 2005 and 2006, down from 7.2% in 2004.
• China's Growth: Maintains robust growth at 9.3% in 2005 and 8.7% in 2006, showing minimal deceleration.
• NIEs and Southeast Asian Economies: Growth has slowed, primarily due to external factors such as higher oil prices, global demand slowdowns, and interest rate hikes.
• Japan's Recovery: Signs of a self-sustaining recovery, with growth projected at 1.8% in 2006, offering hope for regional trade and financial integration.

Poverty Reduction

• Poverty Levels: Poverty at the $2 a day level is estimated to have fallen to 32% of the regional population in 2005, down from 34% in 2004 and 50% in 1996.
• Reduction Trends: Transition economies, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mongolia, have shown faster than expected poverty reduction.
• Social Protection: Initiatives like Indonesia's new cash transfer program aim to mitigate the impact of subsidy removal on the poor.
• Fiscal Reforms: Savings from subsidy cuts are being used to expand education, health, and infrastructure programs for low-income families.

Key Risks

• Global Shocks: High oil prices, weak Doha Development Round outcomes, global macroeconomic imbalances, and the threat of a human influenza pandemic.
• Influenza Threat: Avian influenza A (H5N1) has spread to several East Asian countries, with the potential for a human pandemic that could cause severe economic and social disruption.
• Economic Impacts of Pandemic: Could lead to demand shocks in tourism, transport, and retail sectors, as well as supply shocks due to workplace disruptions. The potential loss of global output is significant due to reduced labor force size and productivity.

International and Regional Environment

Developed Economies

• Growth in developed economies is projected to ease from 3% in 2004 to 2.4–2.5% in 2005–06.
• The U.S. growth has been affected by hurricane damage and monetary tightening.
• The Euro area has seen weaker growth due to domestic demand issues.
• Japan's growth has improved significantly, indicating a positive shift for the region.

China's Economy

• Growth remained strong at 9.3% in 2005 and is projected to slow slightly to 8.7% in 2006.
• The trade surplus surged to around $100 billion, driven by strong exports and slower import growth.
• China is moving toward a more flexible exchange rate system, aiming for a more balanced and sustainable growth model.

Trade Developments

• The phase-out of global textile and clothing quotas has boosted China's exports to the U.S. and EU, with a 64% and 67% increase respectively.
• Other developing countries like India, Bangladesh, and Cambodia also saw increased market share.
• Higher-income economies like Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore experienced a decline in U.S. imports due to the new trade regime.

Oil Price Impact

• Crude oil prices more than doubled since 2003, averaging $54 in 2005 and $56 in 2006.
• Terms of trade losses in East Asia are estimated at 0.7% of GDP annually.
• Net oil exporters (e.g., Malaysia, Vietnam) have benefited, while net importers (e.g., Korea, Philippines) have suffered.
• Governments are phasing out fuel subsidies to improve efficiency and reduce fiscal costs, with some compensatory measures for the poor.

Balance of Payments and Financial Markets

• East Asian foreign exchange reserves reached $1.65 trillion by September 2005, up from $1.46 trillion at the end of 2004.
• China's reserves increased by $161 billion in the first nine months of 2005, driven by a large trade surplus.
• Central banks are tightening monetary policy to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
• Exchange rate flexibility is being pursued to manage balance of payments pressures and improve macroeconomic stability.

Inflation and Interest Rates

• Headline inflation has risen due to higher oil prices and increased fuel cost pass-through.
• Core inflation remains lower than headline inflation but is showing signs of increase.
• Monetary tightening is expected to moderate short-term demand recovery but promote long-term sustainable growth.

Domestic Trends and Policy Challenges

Corporate Sector

• Profitability and balance sheets of East Asian firms have improved significantly since 2003, providing a stronger foundation for investment.
• Interest expenses have dropped due to low interest rates and improved debt restructuring.
• Leverage ratios are now aligned with international norms.
• Challenges include slower domestic demand and export growth, higher fuel costs, and the shift to tighter monetary policy.

Financial Sector

• Banks in previously crisis-affected economies have seen improvements in asset quality, capital adequacy, and profitability.
• Non-performing loans have decreased, though Indonesia's NPL ratio increased due to stricter classification rules.
• Ongoing financial sector reforms focus on prudential regulation, supervisory independence, and alignment with international standards.

Key Policy Implications

• Exchange Rate Reforms: Needed to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
• Trade Policy: The success of the Doha Development Round is critical for long-term trade liberalization and economic integration.
• Social Protection: Important to address the impact of subsidy removal and ensure equitable growth.
• Influenza Preparedness: Requires integrated cross-sectoral approaches involving agriculture, health, and finance to prevent a potential pandemic.

Conclusion

The East Asia and Pacific region is experiencing a slowdown in growth, primarily due to external factors, but remains resilient with continued poverty reduction and policy reforms. The region's future depends on successful trade liberalization, managing macroeconomic imbalances, and preparing for global health threats like avian and human influenza.