2022-04-24-全球能源行业-供应短缺意味着_到2030年_整个能源价值链需要增加1.3万亿美元_53页_1mb

Global Energy Capex Survey Summary

Overview

• Supply Shortfall: A primary energy supply shortfall (~20% underinvestment) requires incremental Capex of $1.3Tn through 2030, rising to $2.7Tn p.a. by 2030 (vs. $2.5Tn trend).
• Energy Demand Growth: +74 EJ between 2019 and 2030.
• Opportunity for OFS: Oilfield services companies (OFS) see significant revenue growth potential from diversifying beyond O&G.

Key Drivers

• Recent Growth: 2022 E&P Capex up 13% YoY (fastest growth since 2012), driven by MENA, NAM, and LNG themes.
• New Energies Focus:
  • Global oil company low-carbon/renewables capex grows at ~14% CAGR to 2028 vs. O&G's 1%.
  • Renewables generate 560bn capex deficit through 2030.

Regional Insights

• MENA: Aramco leading growth (+41% YoY), supporting OFS demand.
• NAM: ~40% capex growth, accelerated by private independents.
• EU Focus: Energy security and LNG drive OFS opportunity.

OFS Opportunities

• Revenue Projections: Capex growth potential might outpace O&G spending by 20-25% by leveraging new markets (power gen, renewables).
• Key Plays:
  • Europe: MENA capex, LNG, offshore renewables.
  • NAM: U.S. shale tightness, private E&P growth.

Cumulative Gap

• Total Investment Gap: $1.3Tn needed between 2022 and 2030 to meet energy demand.

graph LR
A[Energy Demand] --> B{Capex Gap};
B --> C[Oil: $400bn];
B --> D[Gas/Coal: $250bn];
B --> E[Renewables: $560bn];        

Analyst Certification

James Thompson & Co. certify that all views reflect personal views.

Summary created by analyzing J.P. Morgan's Global Energy Capex Survey focused on spending trends, regional growth, NOC discipline, and OFS revenue potential.