2022-06-14-奥纬咨询-China_s_Consumption_Recovery_8页_349kb

CHINA'S CONSUMPTION RECOVERY: A Different Story This Time

Key Summary

1. Recovery Timeline

   • Uncertain reopening timeline; pessimists predict 2024-2025 for full recovery.
   • Neutral view suggests policy easing by October 2022.

2. Expectations Reset

   • 2022 growth expectations cut 15pp from pre-COVID forecasts (avg. 3% YoY).
   • Luxury goods expected to decline heavily (25-35pp reset).

3. 2023 Outlook

   • Cautiously optimistic: Avg. 11% growth projected for 2023.
   • Domestic travel likely a key growth driver post-restrictions.

4. Consumption Behavior Change

   • Consumers shifting to savings (savings rate up 32pp YoY).
   • Consumer confidence index (CCI) at 86.7 (April 2022), near historical lows.

5. Strategic Adjustments

   • Localized supply chains and talent retention critical for resilience.
   • Focus on domestic tourism hubs like Hainan.

Notable Trends

• U/K-shaped Recovery: Expect prolonged trough due to prolonged restrictions.
• Sector Disparities: Premium goods less affected by discretionary spending cuts.
• Geopolitical & Inflation Risks: Heighten uncertainty for global travel and supply chains.

Recommendations

• Enhance digital capabilities and localized strategies.
• Monitor consumer confidence and savings trends.
• Position domestic tourism as core growth driver.