> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Alibaba (BABA US) Summary ## Core Content Alibaba Group's 3QFY26 results show a mixed performance across its business segments, with a notable recovery in the consumption business and strong growth in the cloud segment. The company's revenue for the quarter was RMB284.8bn, up 1.7% YoY, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus. Adjusted EBITA declined by 57% YoY to RMB23.4bn, attributed to continued investments in quick commerce (QC), user experience, and technology. However, the cloud business saw a significant acceleration in YoY revenue growth, reaching 36% in 3QFY26, surpassing the previous quarter's growth and the Bloomberg consensus. ## Key Business Segment Updates ### Alibaba China E-commerce Group (ACEG) - 51.5% of 3QFY26 revenue - Revenue: RMB159.3bn, up 5.8% YoY - Sub-segment growth: E-commerce (+0.8%), QC (+56.0%), China Commerce (+5.3%) - CMR growth: 1% YoY, but expected to accelerate to 6% in 4QFY26 due to improved consumption sentiment - QC revenue: RMB20.8bn, up 56% YoY - Adjusted EBITA: RMB34.6bn, down 43% YoY due to investment in QC and other areas - Management targets: RMB1tn GMV by FY28, profitability by FY29 ### Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) - 12.7% of 3QFY26 revenue - Revenue: RMB39.2bn, up 3.8% YoY - International commerce retail: up 2.5% YoY, driven by AliExpress - International commerce wholesale: up 10.4% YoY, due to value-added services - Adjusted EBITA: RMB2.0bn loss, improved from RMB5.0bn loss in 3QFY25 - Expected profitability improvement in 4QFY26 ### Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) - 14.0% of 3QFY26 revenue - Revenue: RMB43.3bn, up 36% YoY - Public cloud growth: driven by AI adoption - Cumulative external revenue for FY26 exceeded RMB100bn - Target: over US$100bn in combined cloud and AI external revenue within five years - Adjusted EBITA: RMB3.9bn, up 25% YoY - Adjusted EBITA margin: 9.0% (vs. 9.9% in 3QFY25) ### All Others - 21.8% of 3QFY26 revenue - Revenue: RMB67.3bn, down 25% YoY - Decline attributed to the disposal of Sun Art and Intime businesses and reduced Cainiao revenue - Increase in revenue from Freshippo and Alibaba Health - Adjusted EBITA: RMB9.8bn loss, up from RMB3.2bn in 3QFY25 - Expected further loss in 4QFY26 due to investment in Qwen App ## Forecast and Valuation - **Target Price**: US$203.70 per ADS (previously US$206.40) - **SOTP-based Valuation**: 1. ACEG: US$77.2, based on 12x FY28E EV/adj. EBITA 2. AIDC: US$12.5, based on 1.5x FY26E EV/revenue 3. CIG: US$88.5, based on 7.5x FY27E EV/revenue 4. All Others: US$14.8, based on 1.0x FY26E EV/revenue 5. Strategic investments: US$10.7, with 30% holding discount - **Valuation Method**: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) - **New Target Price**: 22x FY28E PE (non-GAAP) ## Revenue and Earnings Forecasts | FY | Revenue (RMB bn) | YoY Growth (%) | Non-GAAP Net Profit (RMB bn) | YoY Growth (%) | |----|------------------|----------------|-----------------------------|----------------| | FY24A | 1,031.2 | 3.5 | 83.1 | -22.0 | | FY25A | 1,137.6 | 10.3 | 99.2 | -34.1 | | FY26E | 1,262.8 | 11.0 | 154.0 | -20.0 | ## Key Points and Main Views - **Consumption Recovery**: There is a positive outlook for the consumption business, with expected growth in 4QFY26 and a long-term goal of profitability by FY29. - **Cloud Growth**: Cloud revenue growth is accelerating, with a 36% YoY increase in 3QFY26 and a target of over US$100bn in combined cloud and AI revenue in five years. - **QC Investment**: Continued investment in QC is expected to yield better unit economics and GMV targets. - **Investor Sentiment**: The report maintains a BUY rating, highlighting Alibaba's strong position in the AI theme and its long-term growth potential. - **Valuation Adjustments**: The target price was revised down due to lower-than-expected CMR and international commerce retail revenue, as well as increased QC losses. ## Risks - **Margin Pressure**: Continued investment in growth areas may impact margins more than expected. - **Consumption Recovery**: The pace of recovery in the consumption business may be slower than anticipated. ## Analyst Certification and Disclaimer - The report is prepared by CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM), a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank. - The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation. - The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. - The information is based on publicly available data and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. - CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from reliance on the report's content.