2025-06-02-Jefferies-通力（KNEV）_与首席财务官的卖方电话会议要点_7页_102kb

Key Market Outlook: China real estate market expected to stabilize by year-end despite weak April NBS data. Southern Europe shows slower growth compared to other EU regions, with Nordics remaining weak and Central Europe underperforming. Europe overall is expected to weaken due to reduced construction activity, though potential infra spend in Germany could provide a lift.

Macroeconomic Factors and Risks: China order margins declining since Q2 2024, impacting P&L from Q2 2025 due to lower earnings and wage inflation. China accounts for ~25% of sales, posing significant risk if property market recovery is limited. Tariff impacts on US operations are mitigated through pricing, production relocation, and supplier switching, but indirect effects uncertain.

Growth Opportunities: Modernization and service business represent the largest growth avenue, with Kone creating the market and consistently outgrowing it. Tier 1/2 cities in China show incremental improvements in liquidity and sales, but non-tiered cities are declining.

Valuation and Financials: Equity Research values Kone at 18.5x 2025E EBITDA. Current price target is €53.00 (down 3% from prior), and the market cap is €28.3B ($32.1B). 2025E margin progression key concern, with procurement savings expected to be limited this year. Stable margins in orders outside China despite positive mix from modernization.

Overall Summary: Kone maintains a Hold rating in equity research, reflecting cautious view on margins, China risks, and Europe slowdown. Valuation based on 18.5x EBITDA for 2025, but risks from China property sector and raw material inflation could affect performance.