世界发展银行-Papua-New-Guinea-Economic-Update,-July-2020-_-In-the-Time-of-COVID-19---From-Relief-to-Recovery_98页_4mb

报告摘要

Papua New Guinea Economic Update: From Relief to Recovery

Core Content Overview

This document provides an economic update and special focus on physical infrastructure development in Papua New Guinea (PNG) during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the economic impact of the pandemic, the government's response, and policy recommendations for a resilient recovery. The special focus section emphasizes the importance of physical infrastructure in driving sustainable development and reducing poverty.

Main Points and Key Information

A. Economic Update in the Time of COVID-19: From Relief to Recovery

1. Recent Economic Developments

Economic Growth: PNG's economy faced a significant contraction due to the COVID-19 crisis, with real GDP growth projected to drop from 3.5% in 2017 to -1.3% in 2020.
Fiscal Developments: The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to -6.4% of GDP in 2020, while the current account surplus will decline to 15.1% of GDP.
Monetary Policy: The Kina Facility Rate (KFR) cuts have not led to a reduction in lending rates, and inflation has slowed due to lower imported inflation and weaker domestic demand.
External Sector: The current account surplus was used to pay down debt, while gold prices are near record highs, and LNG prices are lower, reducing government revenue.

2. Outlook and Risks

Global Outlook: The global economy is expected to recover in 2021-2022, with economic growth likely to exceed 3%.
PNG Outlook: The resource and non-resource sectors are expected to drive recovery. However, the economy's vulnerability to external shocks remains a concern.
Risks: A new wave of the pandemic, reduced foreign investment, and financial sustainability challenges for service providers pose risks to the recovery process.

3. Policy Options for Recovery

Short-term: Implement the COVID-19 Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan, provide unemployment packages, and offer tax relief to MSMEs.
Medium-term: Introduce targeted social assistance, counter-cyclical fiscal policy, and resume the Connect PNG program to improve infrastructure.

B. Special Focus: Investing in Physical Infrastructure for Sustainable Development

1. Infrastructure Overview

Infrastructure and Growth: Physical infrastructure is critical for poverty reduction and sustainable growth.
Key Sectors:
- Energy: Only 13% of the population has access to on-grid electricity, and 25% to off-grid.
- Transport: The road network is fragmented, with 35% of the population living more than 10 km from a national road.
- Water and Sanitation (WaSH): Access to safe water is low, especially in rural areas, contributing to high infant mortality.
- ICT: Mobile coverage reaches 80% of the population, but fixed and mobile subscriptions only cover 11.4%, indicating a need for digital expansion.

2. Constraints and Opportunities

Constraints:
- Geography: PNG's 600 islands, 5,000 km of coastline, and mountains make infrastructure development costly and difficult.
- Policy and Coordination: Lack of policies, coordination, and effective financing hinders development.
- Land Tenure: The customary land system complicates land title acquisition for infrastructure projects.
- Economic Impact of Pandemic: Reduced business activity and affordability constraints have weakened service providers.
Opportunities:
- Natural Resources: Provide financial means for infrastructure development.
- Connect PNG Program: Aims to improve road, port, and telecommunication connectivity.
- Coral Sea Cable: May lead to cost reductions and greater access to broadband.
- Kumul Domestic Submarine Cable and low-cost handsets are expected to boost ICT adoption.

3. Recommendations and Priorities

Policy Design and Coordination: Strengthen policy design, investment planning, and inter-agency coordination.
Sectoral Governance: Improve sectoral and corporate governance, operational efficiency, and financial performance of infrastructure agencies.
Private Sector Participation: Encourage private sector involvement through adequate regulation and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
Infrastructure Investment and Maintenance: Ensure balanced investment between new infrastructure and maintenance.
WaSH Sector:
- Establish the National Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Authority (NWSHA).
- Adopt legislation to regulate the WaSH sector.
- Develop improved planning, financing, and implementation mechanisms.
- Provide funding from public funds, household contributions, and international development until utilities become creditworthy.
Energy Sector:
- Achieve 70% electrification by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050.
- Annual investment of ~US$130 million required for electrification, with 60% on-grid and 40% off-grid.
- Create an enabling policy and regulatory environment for electrification.
- Improve governance and accountability in the power sector.
Transport Sector:
- Prioritize maintenance of the existing road network before expansion.
- Focus on jetties and wharves for the most vulnerable communities.
- Enhance disaster-resilient infrastructure.
- Implement integrated policies and capacity-building programs for government employees and stakeholders.
- Strengthen state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in aviation and maritime sectors.
ICT Sector:
- Facilitate widespread and affordable access to fixed and mobile broadband.
- Improve performance of telecom SOEs under Kumul Consolidated Holdings.
- Reform PNG DataCo to enhance wholesale Internet access and pricing.
- Fast-track tower sharing regulations for mobile broadband.

Conclusion

The PNG Economic Update highlights the economic challenges posed by the pandemic, the government's response, and the importance of physical infrastructure in sustainable development. The special focus section underscores the urgent need for policy reform, investment, and coordination to improve energy, transport, water, and ICT infrastructure. These efforts will help reduce poverty, enhance economic growth, and build resilience for the future.