2024-11-10-世界银行-不丹-不丹水文气象和多灾害预警服务的体制加强和现代化_2024-2034年路线图（英）_132页_4mb

Summary of "Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan: A Road Map for 2024-2034"

Core Content

This document outlines a 10-year roadmap (2024–2034) for institutional strengthening and modernization of the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) in Bhutan, with a focus on enhancing hydrometeorological (hydromet) and multi-hazard early warning services. The goal is to improve the resilience of Bhutan's economy, society, and environment against weather and climate-related hazards through better data collection, modeling, forecasting, and service delivery.

Main Objectives

• To modernize the NCHM's institutional structure and services.
• To enhance the capacity for multi-hazard early warning and hydrometeorological services.
• To support the country's development agenda, including agriculture, hydropower, tourism, and disaster management.
• To improve the accuracy and timeliness of weather and hydrological data for informed decision-making.

Key Information

1. Country Context and Climate

• Bhutan is a climate-sensitive country with a growing vulnerability to extreme weather events and climate change.
• The country's economy is heavily dependent on hydropower, which is threatened by glacial melt at a rate of 16 meters per year.
• Climate data shows temperature and precipitation trends that are critical for understanding future risks.

2. Hydrometeorological Hazards and Impacts

• Floods and landslides are frequent and have significant socioeconomic impacts.
• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) pose a high risk to water resources and hydropower infrastructure.
• Drought and extreme temperatures threaten agricultural productivity and food security.
• Climate change exacerbates these risks and requires long-term adaptive strategies.

3. Governance and Management of Hydromet Services

• The NCHM is the main provider of hydromet services in Bhutan.
• It has a clear legal framework and mandate to provide services to key economic sectors.
• The structure and staffing of the NCHM are under review and improvement.
• The budget is limited and needs to be optimized for effective service delivery.

4. Approach to Modernization

• The document proposes a system-of-systems approach, emphasizing the integration of observation, modeling, forecasting, and services.
• A maturity model is used to assess the current state of the hydromet value chain and identify gaps and challenges.

5. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure

• The NCHM operates surface meteorological, hydrological, and cryosphere observation networks.
• Upper air systems, weather radar, and remote sensing are underdeveloped.
• Data management and quality control systems are in place but require enhancement.
• Forecasting and warning systems for weather, flood, and GLOF are basic and fragmented.
• ICT systems and human resources are limited, affecting the efficiency of service delivery.

6. Roadmap for Modernization

6.1 Short-Term Modernization (2024–2029)

• Establish a new NCHM headquarters.
• Improve observation networks and data collection.
• Develop models, analytics, and forecasts.
• Enhance services delivery across all sectors.
• Upgrade ICT infrastructure.
• Strengthen education and training.
• Promote research and development.
• Address human resource requirements.

6.2 Medium-Term Modernization (2029–2034)

• Expand and integrate observation systems.
• Improve modeling and forecasting capabilities.
• Strengthen services delivery and ICT systems.
• Continue education, training, and research.
• Ensure sufficient human resources to support modernization efforts.

7. Conclusion and Strategic Vision

• The modernization of hydromet and early warning services is critical for Bhutan's sustainable and climate-resilient development.
• The 3:1 benefit-to-cost ratio for hydromet investments highlights the economic value of these services.
• A collaborative and inclusive approach is necessary to ensure stakeholder engagement and effective implementation.
• The roadmap aims to optimize resource use, enhance institutional capacity, and improve the resilience of key economic sectors.

Key Stakeholders and Partners

• Government departments such as agriculture, energy, disaster management, and tourism.
• NCHM is the central agency responsible for weather, hydrological, and cryosphere services.
• World Bank is a key partner, providing technical and financial support.
• Other stakeholders include local communities, development partners, and the private sector.

Funding and Support

• The roadmap is supported by the Japan-World Bank Program and the Climate Investment Fund (CIF).
• The World Bank has been a long-term partner in Bhutan's hydromet development.
• The financial support is essential for implementing the modernization plan over the next decade.

Innovation and Technology

• The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and Deep Learning (DL) is emphasized for enhancing forecasting accuracy.
• The introduction of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and Agromet Decision Support System (ADSS) is proposed to improve service relevance and user engagement.

Conclusion

This roadmap serves as a strategic guide for the NCHM to improve its institutional capacity, service delivery, and early warning systems. It aims to support Bhutan's economic development, protect lives and livelihoods, and enhance resilience to climate change and natural disasters through modernization, innovation, and stakeholder collaboration.