20250606-迈科期货-减产难阻颓势_成本下探加剧_短纤延续弱势_12页_2mb

Short Fiber Market Analysis Summary

Key Points

• Cost End: Crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum. PTA and anhydrous ethylene prices face downward pressure due to weakening supply-demand fundamentals and pessimistic market outlook, exacerbated by poor polyester demand prospects.

• Supply: Production cuts are ongoing due to losses, with expectations for sustained reduction next week to manage inventories.

• Production Profit: Production costs have decreased, leading to marginal profit improvement; however, the supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to support further profit recovery soon.

• Inventory: Inventory levels have declined slightly, primarily from reduced supply, but remain elevated seasonally; inventory risks escalation in the upcoming traditional off-season if production does not continue to decrease.

• Demand: The sales rate is persistently low; demand is subdued, with pure polyester yarn sector showing short-term relief from holiday downtime but fundamental weakness. Expect cautious demand in subsequent weeks, with most purchasing on a just-in-case basis.

• Overall Logic: The market is characterized by weak supply-demand equilibrium, high inventory pressures, and faded initial support from export and trade factors. Supply cuts aim for stabilization rather than boosting demand, while cost weaknesses sustain downward pressure. Overall, short fiber is expected to oscillate weakly.

• Outlook: Price is projected to remain震荡偏弱, with the 07 contract range set at 6200-6500. Key factors to monitor include tariff policies and short fiber production capacity utilization.