兰德-朝鲜常规炮兵：一种报复，胁迫，威慑或恐吓人口的手段（英文）-2020.8-28页_18mb

Summary of North Korean Conventional Artillery Threat

Core Content

This document provides a detailed assessment of the potential threat posed by North Korea's conventional artillery to South Korea, focusing on the capacity for civilian casualties and the strategic implications of such attacks. It outlines five case studies that explore various scenarios of DPRK artillery strikes, emphasizing the risks to population centers and the economic and psychological impact on South Korea.

Main Points

• Artillery Capabilities: North Korea possesses a large number of artillery systems, including both medium-range and long-range artillery, capable of striking South Korean population centers.
• Threat Potential: These systems can cause significant casualties and destruction with little warning. For example, nearly 6,000 systems could kill over 10,000 people in an hour.
• Case Studies: Five scenarios are analyzed to illustrate the range of DPRK artillery strikes, including economic targets, coercive strikes, and full-scale barrages.
• Casualty Estimation: The analysis uses population density data, historical norms, and assumptions about civilian behavior to estimate casualties and fatalities. It includes categories such as direct casualties, panic-related casualties, and "worried well" individuals.
• Modified Estimates: Factors like inaccuracy, dud rounds, and U.S./ROK counterfire reduce the estimated casualties by up to 50%.
• Strategic Implications: The document underscores the importance of deescalation to prevent a costly and bloody military exchange, highlighting the need for policymakers and defense leaders to be aware of the potential consequences of DPRK artillery strikes.

Key Information

North Korean Artillery Overview

• Number of Systems: North Korea has an estimated 4,800 medium-range artillery pieces and nearly 950 long-range artillery pieces.
• Range: Medium-range artillery can fire up to 25 km, while long-range artillery can reach Seoul, located 25 km from the DMZ.
• Deployment: Artillery systems are primarily located along the DMZ, with many in hardened artillery sites (HARTS) that are protected and difficult to target.

South Korean Vulnerability

• Population Density: Seoul alone has a population of ~10 million, with the greater Seoul metropolitan area reaching ~25 million.
• Target Areas: Key areas like the LG P10 Plant, Incheon, Gimpo, and Camp Casey are at risk from DPRK artillery strikes.
• Casualty Impact: Attacks on these areas can result in tens of thousands of casualties and significant economic damage.

Case Study Details

1. Economic Strike on LG P10 Plant

   • Systems: 12 artillery pieces (6 152mm howitzers, 6 122mm MRLs)
   • Rounds Fired: ~210 rounds in 5 minutes
   • Area Targeted: 0.10 km²
   • Estimated Casualties: ~8,550 (Modified: ~6,550)

2. DMZ Demonstration

   • Systems: 864 medium-range artillery pieces
   • Rounds Fired: ~10,000 rounds in 1 minute
   • Area Targeted: 8.1 km²
   • Estimated Casualties: ~4,500 (Modified: ~3,580)

3. Seoul Demonstration

   • Systems: 54 240mm MRLs
   • Rounds Fired: ~1,188 rounds in 1 minute
   • Area Targeted: 2.4 km²
   • Estimated Casualties: ~18,350 (Modified: ~14,630)

4. DMZ Barrage

   • Systems: 5,700 long- and medium-range artillery pieces
   • Rounds Fired: ~385,000 rounds in 1 hour
   • Area Targeted: 73.25 km²
   • Estimated Casualties: ~205,600 (Modified: ~134,700)

5. Seoul "Sea of Fire"

   • Systems: 324 LRA pieces
   • Rounds Fired: ~14,000 rounds in 1 hour
   • Area Targeted: 25 km²
   • Estimated Casualties: ~130,000 (Modified: ~87,600)

Methodology

• Population Data: Used U.S. national laboratory and South Korean census data to estimate population density and targeted areas.
• Casualty Breakdown: Includes direct casualties, panic-related casualties, and "worried well" individuals.
• Assumptions: Attacks occur during peak hours, with assumptions about civilian locations (outdoors, indoors, below ground) and the effects of counterfire.

Conclusion

• Deescalation Importance: The document stresses the need for deescalation to prevent DPRK from feeling compelled to strike, as the initial barrage can cause significant harm before it can be stopped.
• Comparative Perspective: Casualties from conventional artillery are severe but less than those from nuclear attacks.
• Policy Implications: The analysis serves as a critical tool for policymakers and defense leaders to understand the risks and plan accordingly.

Additional Sources

• Albert, Eleanor: "North Korea's Military Capabilities," Council on Foreign Relations
• Bell, B. B.: Statement before the House Armed Services Committee
• Bennett, Bruce W.: "The Prospects for Conventional Conflict on the Korean Peninsula"
• Bogle, Jacob: "Phase II Map Completed: #AccessDPRK"
• Cavazos, Roger: "Mind the Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality"

This summary highlights the substantial threat posed by North Korea's conventional artillery and the critical need for deescalation and strategic preparedness.