20180418-兴业金融证券-世茂房地产-00813.HK-Key_Takeaways_From_Meeting_10页_460kb
报告摘要
Shimao Property Holdings Summary
Core Content
Shimao Property Holdings is a leading Mainland China property developer, with a focus on residential, commercial, and hotel developments. The company has a strong presence in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and is expanding into the Northern and Southern regions, including Shandong province, northeast cities, and the Greater Bay Area. The company remains optimistic about the property market and continues its aggressive scale expansion strategy.
Main Points
- Expansion Strategy: Shimao is expanding into new regions, including the Northern and Southern areas, with a particular emphasis on the Greater Bay Area. It maintains a strong foothold in the Eastern region.
- Shenzhen Projects: Three large-scale commercial projects in Shenzhen are expected to significantly increase sales and rental income as they reach maturity, with presales expected to ramp up to over CNY20.0bn in FY19-20F.
- Funding Options: Shimao is exploring various funding sources, including the disposal of its hotel stake, to support its expansion. This could enhance its financial capacity rather than relying on equity financing.
- Financial Performance: Shimao has shown consistent growth in recurring net profit and EPS, with a rising dividend yield and increasing return on equity (ROE).
- Valuation: The current share price of HKD20.7 is at a 25% discount to the end-FY18F ENAV of HKD40.00. The target price is maintained at HKD30.0, offering a 45% upside.
- Key Risks: Inventory clearance for some slow-moving projects could negatively impact contracted sales.
Key Information
- Target Price: HKD30.0 (45% upside)
- Share Price: HKD20.7
- Market Cap: USD8,931m
- Bloomberg Ticker: 813 HK
- Dividend Yield: Expected to increase to 13.0% by FY20F
- Recurring EPS Growth: Expected to reach 5.37 CNY by FY20F
- Net Debt to Equity: Expected to increase to 65.7% by FY20F
- Gearing: Likely to increase due to higher land purchase expenses
Financial Highlights
| Metric | Dec-16 | Dec-17 | Dec-18F | Dec-19F | Dec-20F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Turnover (CNYm) | 59,286 | 70,426 | 80,785 | 117,461 | 154,137 |
| Recurring Net Profit (CNYm) | 6,251 | 6,930 | 10,356 | 14,437 | 18,951 |
| Recurring EPS (CNY) | 1.82 | 2.05 | 3.02 | 4.15 | 5.37 |
| DPS (CNY) | 0.66 | 0.83 | 1.21 | 1.66 | 2.15 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 9.10 | 8.07 | 5.48 | 3.99 | 3.08 |
| P/B (x) | 1.08 | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 4.0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| Return on Average Equity (%) | 10.1 | 14.2 | 16.5 | 19.8 | 22.3 |
| Return on Average Assets (%) | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Net Debt to Equity (%) | 58.8 | 63.4 | 72.9 | 67.2 | 65.7 |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | Dec-16 | Dec-17 | Dec-18F | Dec-19F | Dec-20F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring P/E (x) | 9.10 | 8.07 | 5.48 | 3.99 | 3.08 |
| P/E (x) | 11.0 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| P/B (x) | 1.08 | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 2.3 | -6.7 | -24.5 | 5.6 | -1.8 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 4.0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 6.90 | 5.69 | 5.67 | 4.35 | 3.65 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 7.13 | 6.00 | 5.93 | 4.50 | 3.75 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HKD) | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 3-Month Avg T/O (USDm) | RHB/Cons (USDm) | Discount (%) | P/E (FY18F) | P/E (FY19F) | EPS YoY (FY18F) | EPS YoY (FY19F) | 3-Year EPS CAGR | P/BV (FY18F) | P/BV (FY19F) | Net Gearing (FY18F) | Net Gearing (FY19F) | ROE (FY18F) | ROE (FY19F) | Share Price Change (1-Mth) | Share Price Change (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Peer Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 29.7 | 8.4 | 31.6 | 22.2 | 26.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | - | - | - | - |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | 24.85 | 41,716 | 75.0 | 42.20 | 41.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 18.0 | 25.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 7.9 | -4.2 | -7.8 | -4.4 | -7.8 |
| China Overseas | 688 HK | 26.20 | 36,568 | 77.7 | 43.00 | 39.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 20.1 | 21.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -6.6 | 4.2 | -6.3 | 4.2 |
| China Vanke | 2202 HK | 31.85 | 51,674 | 45.3 | 33.34 | 4.5 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 24.5 | 21.2 | 26.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 5.7 | -15.4 | -10.9 | -15.4 | -10.9 |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | 15.52 | 42,982 | 166.3 | 25.80 | 39.8 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 34.2 | 26.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | -10.8 | -11.3 | -10.8 | -11.3 |
| CR Land | 1109 HK | 28.15 | 24,855 | 70.3 | 42.00 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 26.2 | 22.4 | 26.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 5.0 | -11.3 | -11.3 | -11.3 | -11.3 |
| Longfor | 960 HK | 23.10 | 17,410 | 19.6 | 35.10 | 34.2 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 27.6 | 29.1 | 26.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | -10.8 | -10.8 | -10.8 | -10.8 |
| Shimao | 813 HK | 20.70 | 8,931 | 23.1 | 40.00 | 48.3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 31.6 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 7.6 | -10.8 | -10.8 | -10.8 | -10.8 |
Key Drivers and Risks
- Drivers: Strong brand reputation in the Eastern region, sound financial position, potential for increased rental income from Shenzhen projects, and favorable policy environment.
- Risks: Inventory clearance for slow-moving projects, potential market saturation in certain regions.
Recommendation
- Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained)
- Target Price: HKD30.0
- Upside Potential: 45% from current price
- Valuation Basis: 25% discount to end-FY18F ENAV of HKD40.00
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
- Strong presence in Yangtze River Delta and Fujian province
- Steady financial position and competitive profit margins
Weaknesses:
- Inventory clearance and slow-moving projects affecting contracted sales
Opportunities:
- Favorable policy backdrop
- Credit loosening environment
Threats:
- Stringent policy control in key markets
- Fierce competition in land market in Tier-1 and -2 cities
展开完整摘要
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