2016年-世界发展银行全球_Timor-Leste_-_Oecusse_Economic_and_Trade_Potential___Overview_of_Oecusse_Today_and_Long_Term_Potential_68页_2mb

Summary of Oecusse Economic and Trade Potential

Core Content

This report, Report No: ACS18457 v1, is a comprehensive assessment of Oecusse, a district in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, focusing on its current economic state and long-term development potential. The report is divided into two volumes, with Volume I providing an overview of Oecusse's present conditions and future prospects, and Volume II offering detailed analysis and background documents.

Oecusse is identified as a lagging district within a lagging country, characterized by lower living standards, limited access to basic services, and a significant reliance on subsistence agriculture. Despite these challenges, the district exhibits strong social cohesion and trust, which could be leveraged for development.

Main Products and Economic Activity

1.1.1 A Snapshot of Living Standards

• Poverty rates: 61% of the population is below the national poverty line.
• Education: Literacy rate is 43%, significantly lower than the national rate of 63%.
• Health: Infant mortality rate is 45 per 1000 live births, higher than the national rate of 66.
• Sanitation and Infrastructure: Access to electricity and sanitation is worse than national and regional averages.
• Demographics: A younger population with a smaller working-age group (15-49 years) and a higher proportion of women in this group.

1.2 Existing Output

• Agriculture: 78% of the population is engaged in agriculture, primarily subsistence farming.
• Livestock: A substantial livestock population exists, though not fully utilized.
• Tourism: A small and underdeveloped tourism sector, often referred to as a 'visitor economy' serving officials and development professionals.
• Fishing: Limited by cultural norms.

Constraints to Production and Trade

1.3 Constraints to Increasing Production

• Agriculture: High labor costs, unproductive farming techniques, and limited irrigation capacity hinder productivity.
• Livestock: Challenges with access to markets and lack of modern techniques.
• Irrigation: Limited water availability and high costs of expansion.

1.4 Current Trade

• Formal Trade with West Timor: Facilitated by border passes, but limited due to low production.
• Illegal Trade: Exists but is not well-documented.
• Trade with Dili: Conducted via a twice-weekly ferry, with low volume.
• Migration: Small net migration to Dili via ferry.

1.5 Barriers to Trade Expansion

• Infrastructure and Border Procedures: Poor connectivity and complex border crossings.
• Livestock Trade: High costs and inefficiencies.
• Regional Trade Flows: Limited access due to lack of shipping routes and low production capacity.

Future Potential and Recommendations

2.1 Infrastructure Costs

• Basic Infrastructure: Estimated cost of $221 million in capital and $71 million annually for education, health, roads, and electricity.
• OADP Investment: An additional $47.5 million over ten years for the Oecusse Agriculture Development Plan (OADP).

2.2 Special Economic Zones (SEZ)

• Focus on Agriculture and Forestry: These sectors are most viable for development, with potential for agro-processing.
• Key Recommendations:
  • Tailored Infrastructure: Develop infrastructure that meets the needs of investors rather than a generic approach.
  • Ease of Doing Business: Implement a one-stop shop to reduce transaction costs.
  • Location Utilization: Leverage natural and human resources and nearby markets.
  • Governance: Ensure experienced and reputable management to reduce risk and ensure effective fund use.
  • Education and Health: Invest in these sectors to support local workforce development.

2.3 Growth Sectors

• Agriculture and Forestry: High potential for growth and export, with teak and mahogany showing high financial returns.
• Tourism: Can be developed but is likely to remain a 'visitor economy' due to limited attractions and infrastructure.
• Manufacturing and Mining: Not viable due to high labor and transport costs, and limited scale of production.

Social and Governance Issues

• Migration Management: Anticipated significant migration flows that require regulation to maintain social cohesion and avoid crime and trafficking.
• Community Engagement: Essential for local buy-in and ensuring that development meets community needs.
• Governance Structures: Must be robust and expert-led to support successful SEZ implementation.

Recommendations for ZEESM

• Private Sector Engagement: Develop a clear value proposition and conduct investor surveys.
• Connectivity with West Timor: Improve livestock-related infrastructure and facilitate trade.
• Port Upgrade: Upgrade Oecusse Port to 'international' status to ease import of materials.
• Trade with Dili: Increase ferry frequency and reduce costs, reform border processes.
• Long-Term Study: Assess the feasibility of a transport corridor, drawing on international examples.
• Transit Agreements: Explore collaboration with Indonesia to improve transit provisions.

Conclusion

Oecusse has significant potential for economic growth, particularly in agriculture and forestry. However, achieving this potential requires targeted interventions, improved infrastructure, and a well-structured SEZ plan that addresses the six fundamentals of SEZ development. The report emphasizes the need for a holistic approach that includes social and economic development, investment in human capital, and effective governance.