2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_What_does_the_UK_want_from_an_EU_renegotiation_and_what_terms_can_it_expect_3页_171kb

UK's Renegotiation and Withdrawal from the EU: Key Considerations

Core Content

This document, authored by John Bruton, former Prime Minister of Ireland, discusses the implications of a potential UK renegotiation or withdrawal from the European Union. It outlines the political, legal, and economic challenges that would arise from such a process and emphasizes the importance of maintaining the EU's effectiveness and stability.

Main Issues and Concerns

1. Renegotiation and Withdrawal Scenarios

• The UK's potential renegotiation or withdrawal from the EU is a topic that will be significant if the Conservative Party gains an overall majority in Parliament, particularly following the 2015 general election or subsequent elections.
• If the UK were to leave the EU, a majority of the remaining 27 member states would need to agree on the terms of a new relationship, including access to the EU Single Market.

2. UK's Internal Debate

• The debate on the UK's future in the EU is largely confined to the UK, with little consideration given to the broader implications for other EU members.
• EU leaders have largely remained silent on the matter, fearing to provoke UK public opinion, which may perceive the issue as purely domestic.

3. National Interest and EU Stability

• Bruton argues that the UK has a national interest in the EU remaining a viable and effective institution.
• An effective EU supports peace in Europe and facilitates a single, open market that benefits British trade.
• A weakened EU could lead to a fragmented Europe with multiple markets and currencies, which would be detrimental to the UK.

4. Proposed UK Renegotiation Terms

• The Red Card proposal, which allows a minority of national parliaments to veto EU laws, is seen as a threat to the EU's decision-making process.
• This could lead to the liberalisation of the services market being blocked, undermining the EU Single Market's stability.
• The proposal would require treaty change and would need the agreement of all 28 member states and the European Parliament.

5. Opting Out of the European Court of Justice

• The UK may seek to opt out of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as the final arbiter in disputes related to crime.
• This could result in 28 different interpretations of EU laws, creating loopholes that could be exploited by criminals.

6. Withdrawal Negotiation Process

• If the UK votes to leave, a new negotiation would begin under Article 50 of the EU Treaty.
• This process would require a qualified majority in the European Council and a majority in the European Parliament.
• The UK would likely be expected to continue contributing financially to the EU budget in exchange for access to the Single Market.

7. Consequences of No Agreement

• If no agreement is reached within two years, the UK would leave the EU and face trade restrictions and tariffs.
• Customs posts would be reintroduced at the Irish border and cross-Channel ports, which could disrupt trade and damage relations with Ireland.
• Restricting EU immigration would require passport controls at the Irish border, potentially undermining the peace process in Northern Ireland.

Key Information

• Treaty Change: Any significant changes to the UK's EU terms would require treaty revision, involving all 28 member states and the European Parliament.
• EU Integration: The EU's deep integration means that many issues the UK seeks to address are not purely domestic but affect the entire Union.
• Political Impact: The UK's internal debate on EU membership could have a paralysing effect on EU-wide decision-making.
• Effectiveness of the EU: Maintaining the EU's effectiveness is in the UK's national interest, as a weak or fragmented EU would be harmful to British trade and security.

Conclusion

Bruton warns that the UK's demands for renegotiation or withdrawal could undermine the EU's stability and effectiveness. He advocates for a balanced approach that considers the broader implications of UK actions on the European Union as a whole, emphasizing the importance of preserving the EU's role as a cohesive and functional institution.