CSIS-邻国面临风险：墨西哥的危机日益严重（英文）-2020.9-11页_101kb

Neighbor at Risk: Mexico's Deepening Crises and Implications

Core Content

Mexico, with its 128 million population and $1.26 trillion GDP, is deeply intertwined with the United States through geography, trade, and migration. As the U.S.'s largest trading partner, Mexico's economic stability and governance directly affect American jobs, investment, and security. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) further strengthens this economic relationship, with $101 billion in U.S. investment in 2019.

Main Points

Economic Crisis

• Covid-19 Impact: The pandemic has exacerbated Mexico's economic challenges, reducing revenues from both domestic and international trade while increasing government spending.
• FDI Decline: Mexico dropped from the top 25 most attractive investment destinations in 2020 due to AMLO's market-unfriendly policies.
• PEMEX Struggles: The national oil company, PEMEX, has become a revenue drain, accumulating $2 billion in debt in 2020. Fitch downgraded PEMEX to junk bond status.
• Fiscal Deterioration: Mexico's public debt is projected to rise from 45% to 60% of GDP by the end of 2020, potentially leading to a loss of investment grade.
• Risk of Lost Decade: The economic impact could be more severe than the 1982 debt default, with potential long-term stagnation.

Security Crisis

• Escalating Violence: Mexico recorded 34,582 homicides in 2019, with an additional 18,000 in the first quarter of 2020. The country is on track to break its homicide record.
• Criminal Groups: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and Sinaloa Cartel are the most powerful, with the CJNG controlling over half of Mexico's territory.
• Pandemic Effects: While the pandemic temporarily reduced reported crime, it also increased desperation and may have suppressed crime reporting. Criminal groups have adapted by using alternative smuggling methods.
• Security Reorganization: AMLO's reorganization of the security sector, including the dissolution of the federal police and the creation of the national guard, has caused confusion and weakened institutional capacity.
• Military Involvement: The military has been increasingly involved in law enforcement and public health response, straining its resources and capabilities.

Political Instability

• Internal Divisions: AMLO's government has faced significant internal conflict, including resignations of key ministers and defections within MORENA.
• Protests: Widespread protests against AMLO's policies have occurred, particularly over the pace of reopening during the pandemic.
• Midterm Elections: The erosion of MORENA's supermajority in Congress raises concerns about future governance and policy continuity.

Implications for the United States and the Region

• Trade and Investment: Mexico's economic instability could weaken its position as a trade partner, increasing the risk of China expanding its influence.
• Security Concerns: The worsening security situation may lead to increased drug trafficking and violence, affecting U.S. border security and public safety.
• Migration Pressures: Economic hardship may drive more migration from Mexico to the U.S., complicating border management and asylum processes.
• Geopolitical Risk: Mexico's potential shift toward a more radical and politically unstable government could reduce cooperation with the U.S. on regional issues such as Venezuela and free trade.
• Strategic Vulnerability: The U.S. may lose its strategic advantage in Latin America as Mexico becomes more aligned with China, particularly in energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors.

China's Growing Influence

• Strategic Partnerships: Despite being a U.S. ally, Mexico's crises have made it more receptive to Chinese economic and political engagement.
• Economic Sectors: China has increased its presence in Mexico's energy, infrastructure, and technology industries.
  • Energy: CNODC operates in the Gulf of Mexico, and Chinese firms are involved in wind and solar projects.
  • Infrastructure: CCCC is part of the Tren Maya project, and Chinese banks may fund government-led infrastructure initiatives.
  • Technology: Huawei and ZTE are major suppliers of telecommunications equipment, and Didi is expanding into the Mexican market.
• PEMEX and Loans: AMLO's preference for state-led development and low oil prices may make PEMEX more open to Chinese loans, potentially increasing Chinese influence in Mexico's oil sector.

Conclusion

Mexico's health, economic, and security crises are deeply interconnected and threaten to undermine its role as a stable neighbor to the United States. These challenges, compounded by internal political instability and AMLO's reorganization of key institutions, risk reducing Mexico's cooperation with the U.S. and increasing its reliance on China. The U.S. must remain attentive to Mexico's needs and ensure continued collaboration to mitigate these risks.