20140806-高盛-Competitive_positioning_critical_in_moderating_growth_environment_13页_368kb

PM Summary: Shale Shifting and Shaping Industry Growth

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the global oil services (OFS) industry, emphasizing the transformative impact of US shale on the sector. It outlines the importance of competitive positioning in a lower growth environment, where the focus shifts from pure growth to cost optimization, efficiency, and access to high-value resources. The Goldman Sachs (GS) Competitive Positioning (CP) framework is introduced to evaluate and rank 50 oil service companies based on key metrics.

Main Points

• US Shale Impact: US shale has significantly altered the oil industry by increasing access to resources and splitting the industry cost curve at $85/bl. This shift has created winners and losers, with companies that can access high-value technologies and markets benefiting the most.

• NOCs and IOCs Dynamics: National Oil Companies (NOCs) are expected to continue increasing E&P spending, while European International Oil Companies (IOCs) are likely to reduce capex in the near-to-medium term. This dynamic affects the overall growth trajectory of the industry.

• Shift in E&P Focus: The drivers of industry growth are moving toward onshore horizontal drilling, US shale, and NOCs, rather than offshore and deepwater projects. This shift makes differentiation and access to growth critical for success.

• GS Competitive Positioning Framework: The framework evaluates companies across four key areas: Technology risk/disruption risk, Market structure (Pricing power/cost advantage), Risk and Execution, and Access to Growth. Each category is weighted and calculated based on specific metrics to provide a comprehensive CP score.

Key Metrics and Their Significance

• Barriers to Entry: Rated on a 1-5 scale based on time and capital required to enter a market. Offshore drillers receive an additional adjustment based on fleet age.

• Market Structure: Assessed using the Herfindahl index and revenue-weighted market share to evaluate pricing power and economies of scale.

• Risk and Execution: Measured by the volatility of CROCI (Capital Return on Capital Invested) over the 2006-2013 cycle, indicating earnings resilience and risk profile.

• Access to Growth: Based on end-market exposure, using Top 400 analysis and rig count forecasts to identify growth opportunities.

Key Companies and Ratings

The following companies are highlighted based on their CP scores and investment ratings:

Note: Some companies are included on the regional Conviction List.

Key Insights

• High CP Scores: Large cap service companies and those with differentiated technology or niche leadership tend to have higher CP scores and are more likely to deliver superior growth and returns.

• Low CP Scores: Drilling and seismic segments have lower CP scores due to low barriers to entry, fragmented markets, and limited growth opportunities.

• Future Outlook: The industry is expected to see a slowdown in major projects and a shift in focus toward more technically complex and high-value areas such as shale, NOCs, and deepwater.

• Investment Implications: Companies with strong competitive positioning, access to growth, and the ability to innovate through integrated project models are positioned to benefit from the evolving landscape.

Conclusion

The transformation brought by US shale has redefined the competitive landscape of the oil services industry. In a lower growth environment, the ability to differentiate, access high-value markets, and provide innovative solutions will be crucial for long-term success. The GS Competitive Positioning framework helps identify these leaders and provides a structured approach for investment decision-making.