2009年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon___Study_on_LNG_Supply_Market_and_Technical_Viability_44页_1mb

Summary of the Lebanon LNG Supply, Market & Technical Viability Study

Core Content

This report, prepared by Poten & Partners for the World Bank, evaluates the feasibility of introducing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply to Lebanon, focusing on the electricity market and technical and commercial viability. The study does not constitute a full pre-feasibility or master plan but aims to provide preliminary guidance for potential LNG development.

Main Objectives

• To assess the availability of LNG supply to Lebanon and the associated supply risks.
• To highlight the potential of LNG as an alternative fuel for power generation.
• To evaluate the technical and commercial viability of LNG supply, particularly for the Zahrani power plant.
• To recommend steps for Lebanon to prepare for LNG importation before reaching a Final Investment Decision (FID) by July 2011.

Key Findings

Market Viability

• Global LNG Market Growth: The global LNG supply is projected to increase from 176 MMt/y in 2008 to nearly 400 MMt/y by 2020. This growth presents opportunities for new LNG supply contracts.
• Favorable Market Conditions: Lebanon is in a favorable position to secure LNG supply in the next few years due to a global surplus of LNG.
• LNG Pricing: Current LNG pricing is projected to be around $7/MMBtu (DES), assuming oil prices of around $65/bbl.
• Supply Sources: The Middle East, North Africa (MENA) region is the best source for LNG supply to Lebanon, with a significant amount of flexible LNG supply.
• Regulatory Requirements: Suppliers require a creditworthy buyer, and EDL alone is not sufficient. A government guarantee or a World Bank partial-risk guarantee may be necessary.

Technical Viability

• Site Constraints: Zahrani, the main candidate for LNG import, has shallow water depth and limited port infrastructure.
• Import Technologies: Offshore regasification via a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) is recommended due to its lower capital cost and shorter construction timeline (0.5–2 years) compared to onshore terminals (2.5–4 years).
• Cost Analysis:
  • Onshore conventional terminal: ~$550 million
  • FSRU adjacent to berth: ~$200 million
  • Permanently moored offshore FSRU with ship-to-ship transfer: ~$70 million
• LNG as Fuel for Power Plants: LNG is expected to significantly reduce generation costs at the Zahrani CCGT power plant, displacing distillate oil (DO).
• Technology Comparison: Offshore FSRU with ship-to-ship (STS) transfer is more cost-effective than onshore or FSRU adjacent to berth, especially when considering regasification vessel chartering.

Commercial Viability

• Economic Benefits: Implementing an FSRU at Zahrani could result in annual savings of $75–$80 million, with an internal rate of return (IRR) over 90% and payback within 1–2 years.
• Long-term Prospects: LNG has comparable life cycle generation costs to coal but without the environmental drawbacks, making it a viable long-term fuel option.
• Fuel Price Assumptions:
  • HFO: $330/te
  • DO: $587/te
  • LNG: $7/MMBtu
  • AGP Gas: $5.65/MMBtu (20% discount to LNG)

Key Recommendations

• Site-Specific Feasibility Study: Conduct a detailed technical and commercial feasibility study for the Zahrani site before making any investment decisions.
• Regulatory and Legal Framework: Finalize a gas/LNG import law to clarify the regulatory and fiscal regime for LNG importation.
• Procurement Strategy: Develop a long-term LNG supply procurement strategy to secure supply and ensure competitiveness.
• Creditworthy Buyer: Ensure that a creditworthy entity is in place to negotiate with suppliers, as EDL alone may not qualify.
• World Bank Support: Consider the possibility of a World Bank partial-risk guarantee to support LNG procurement.

Future LNG Demand

• Low Case Scenario: By 2020, LNG demand at Zahrani is expected to be 1.5 MMt/y (2.1 Bcm/y).
• High Case Scenario: By 2020, LNG demand is expected to be 2 MMt/y (2.8 Bcm/y), increasing to 2.2 MMt/y (3.7 Bcm/y) by 2030.

Electricity Demand and Generation

• Electricity Demand Growth: EDF forecasts a low growth rate of 2.2% per annum and a high growth rate of 4.3% per annum.
• Power Plant Capacity:
  • By 2020, installed capacity under low demand is 3,930 MW, with 1,335 MW from CCGT.
  • Under high demand, capacity reaches 4,820 MW, with 2,225 MW from CCGT.
• Fuel Mix: Currently, most power plants use HFO or DO. The Zahrani and Beddawi CCGT plants are expected to transition to LNG and Egyptian gas respectively by 2012.

Conclusion

• LNG as a Solution: LNG can significantly reduce generation costs and provide a more flexible and secure supply option for Lebanon.
• Technical and Commercial Feasibility: Offshore regasification is the most viable option for Zahrani due to its lower cost and shorter construction time.
• Need for Immediate Action: Lebanon must act quickly to secure LNG supply and develop the necessary infrastructure and legal framework before the FID deadline.

Key Terms

Conversion Factors

• 1 MMT of LNG = 1.38 Bcm of gas
• 1 MMT of LNG = 48.7 Bcf of gas
• 1 BSCFD of gas = 7.5 MMt/y of LNG