2009年-世界发展银行全球_Aid_for_Trade___Matching_Potential_Demand_and_Supply_44页_835kb

Aid for Trade: Matching Potential Demand and Supply

Core Content

This working paper by Elisa Gamberoni and Richard Newfarmer from the World Bank explores the concept of Aid for Trade (A4T), focusing on identifying countries that are underperforming in trade and receiving less aid for trade than their potential demand suggests. The paper aims to help both beneficiary governments and donors better allocate aid for trade by understanding the link between trade performance, capacity constraints, and the need for support.

The authors develop a framework to assess trade performance and capacity constraints using ten indicators, including trade-related infrastructure, institutions, and policy-induced incentives. These indicators are designed to predict trade outcomes and help identify where aid for trade is most needed.

Main Points

1. Trade Performance: Leading and Lagging Countries

• Real growth of exports is a key indicator. It is highly correlated with economic growth and poverty reduction.
• Countries that liberalized their trade regimes experienced faster growth and higher capital accumulation.
• Changing competitiveness is another important measure. It looks at the evolution of a country’s ability to compete in global markets.
• Export concentration is a third measure. It reflects the vulnerability of a country's economy to price fluctuations and demand shifts, as it is overly reliant on a few products.

2. Behind Poor Trade Performance: Capacity Constraints

• Trade-related infrastructure (e.g., transport, ports, telecommunications) significantly affects trade flows and costs.
• Trade-related institutions (e.g., customs, port management) are also critical. Improvements in these areas can increase trade volumes and economic growth.
• Policy-induced incentives (e.g., import and export tariffs, border regulations) influence private investment and trade efficiency. Lower tariffs can lead to productivity gains.

3. Gauging Potential Demand for Aid for Trade

• The paper identifies countries in the bottom quintiles of trade performance and policy indicators as having a potential demand for aid for trade.
• These countries may benefit significantly from A4T interventions to improve their trade capacity and performance.

4. Supply of Aid for Trade: Who Gets Aid for Trade and Why?

• The authors analyze the allocation of aid for trade to see whether it is aligned with potential demand.
• They find that many underperforming countries receive below-average aid for trade, despite their need.
• The goal is not to prescribe aid amounts but to highlight the importance of considering trade performance and capacity when designing national development strategies and allocating aid.

Key Indicators

The paper proposes the following indicators for assessing trade performance and capacity:

1. Growth rate of exports of goods and services
2. Changes in global market share of goods and services
3. Changes in competitiveness in existing goods markets
4. Demand structure of exports
5. Degree of concentration in the export portfolio

For capacity constraints, the following indicators are suggested:

1. Infrastructure indicators: transport, ports, telecommunications, and information technology.
2. Institutional indicators: customs efficiency, port management, and regulatory environment.
3. Policy-induced incentives: tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs), and border regulations.

Conclusion

• The paper provides a conceptual framework for monitoring trade performance and its determinants, which could be used by the WTO and its partners.
• It emphasizes the importance of addressing internal barriers to trade, such as infrastructure, institutions, and policy, which can prevent countries from benefiting from trade opportunities.
• It highlights the need for donors and governments to align aid for trade with the actual needs of countries, based on their trade performance and capacity.

Recommendations

• Countries should consider trade as a central component of their national development strategies.
• Donors should allocate more aid for trade to countries with high potential demand but low current supply.
• A set of indicators should be monitored regularly to assess trade performance and capacity, enabling better-informed aid allocation decisions.

References

• Annex 1: Country Tables
• Annex 2: Indicators and related sources
• Annex 3: Methodology

This paper is part of the World Bank's broader effort to support monitoring and evaluation of Aid for Trade initiatives, particularly in the context of the WTO's Expert Group Meeting on Aid for Trade.