欧洲安全研究所-在压力下：白俄罗斯可以抵抗俄罗斯的胁迫吗？（英文）-2020.7-8页_1mb

Summary of "UNDER PRESSURE: Can Belarus Resist Russian Coercion?"

Core Content

This document examines the evolving relationship between Belarus and Russia, focusing on how Russia has increasingly used coercion to ensure Belarus's geopolitical alignment. It highlights the challenges Belarus faces in maintaining its sovereignty and the strategic dilemmas the EU must navigate in its engagement with the country.

Main Points

• Russia's Coercion Strategy:
  Since 2014, Russia has intensified pressure on Belarus to deepen political and economic integration. This includes:

  • Revoking subsidies in exchange for geopolitical loyalty.
  • Introducing hybrid measures to influence domestic politics.
  • Using Gazprom diplomacy to leverage energy dependence.

• Belarus's Resistance and Survival Strategy:
  President Lukashenko has consistently resisted Russian pressure, prioritizing sovereignty over alignment. His strategy involves:

  • Playing Russia against the West to secure economic benefits.
  • Seeking closer ties with the EU and other international partners.
  • Pursuing a 'multi-vector' foreign policy, including cooperation with China and the US.

• Hybrid Threats and Information Control:
  Russia has deployed a range of hybrid tactics to undermine Belarus's independence, including:

  • Propaganda campaigns to promote the 'Russian World' narrative.
  • Influence through state-controlled and pro-Russian media.
  • Coordinated actions by NGOs, the Orthodox Church, and other entities to sway public opinion.

• Economic Vulnerabilities:
  Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russian energy, particularly oil and gas, which is a critical component of its economy. This dependency:

  • Limits its ability to resist Russian coercion.
  • Makes it vulnerable to economic pressure, such as changes in pricing and supply routes.
  • Requires significant investment in alternative infrastructure to reduce reliance on Russian pipelines.

• Domestic Challenges and Political Risks:
  Lukashenko's regime is facing internal dissent and political instability:

  • Opposition movements have grown, with protests and civil society engagement increasing.
  • The regime has cracked down on dissenters, risking further alienation from the West.
  • A potential power transition could lead to a more pro-European Belarus, but the EU must balance support for sovereignty with the risk of empowering the regime or provoking Russian retaliation.

Key Information

• Belarus's Neutrality:
  The Belarusian constitution guarantees neutrality, which Lukashenko has used to position himself as a regional stabilizer and a bulwark against Russian influence.

• EU's Dilemma:
  The EU is caught between:

  • Supporting Belarus's independence.
  • Avoiding actions that might strengthen Lukashenko's regime or provoke Russia.
  • The need to engage with Belarus for regional security, despite its authoritarian practices.

• Potential Scenarios:

  • Continued Coercion: Russia may escalate pressure, leading to a more subjugated Belarus.
  • Power Transition: A peaceful shift to a post-Lukashenko era could occur, but it is uncertain and may not result in a more pro-European alignment.
  • EU Engagement: The EU should focus on constructive cooperation, especially in energy, civil society, and cultural exchanges, to support Belarus's sovereignty without undermining its long-term stability.

Strategic Recommendations for the EU

• Energy Independence:
  Reduce Belarus's reliance on Russian energy by developing alternative supply routes and promoting renewable energy sources.

• Neutrality Support:
  Encourage Belarusian neutrality by deterring military reintegration with Russia and fostering closer ties with NATO.

• Cultural and Media Support:
  Promote 'soft Belarusianisation' through media and cultural initiatives to counter Russian influence.

• Civil Society Development:
  Invest in civil society and media literacy to build resilience against hybrid threats.

• Cross-Border Cooperation:
  Strengthen regional ties with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine through initiatives like Euroregions to integrate Belarus into European social and economic networks.

Conclusion

Belarus's ability to resist Russian coercion is increasingly under threat due to its economic and geopolitical dependence. While Lukashenko's balancing act has allowed some autonomy, it is becoming unsustainable. The EU faces a complex challenge in supporting Belarus's independence without risking further authoritarian consolidation or Russian aggression. The future of the Belarus-Russia relationship remains uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and European security.