重归阴影：中巴经济走廊的命运-美国德国马歇尔基金会-2020.9.16-59页

CPEC Summary

Core Content

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as the flagship of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has undergone significant changes since its inception in 2015. Initially hailed as a transformative project with a projected investment of over $46 billion, and some estimates reaching up to $100 billion, CPEC has seen a slowdown in its ambitions and scope, particularly in the context of Pakistan's deteriorating economic situation and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Main Points

1. CPEC's Slowdown

• Financial Challenges: Pakistan's economic distress, including fiscal and balance-of-payments issues, has made the full-scale version of CPEC financially unsustainable.
• Project Stagnation: Even before the pandemic, CPEC had stalled, and the figures of $62 billion or more are no longer accurate.
• Revised Focus: The current focus is on completing already agreed projects (such as Gwadar port), moving forward with smaller-scale initiatives, and prioritizing socioeconomic projects.
• Shift in Scale: The project is moving from "mega projects" to "peanut projects," reflecting a more modest and sustainable approach.

2. CPEC's Troubles

• Economic Factors: The financial viability of CPEC is under threat due to Pakistan's economic struggles.
• Political Factors: CPEC was initially seen as closely tied to the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which led to skepticism from opposition parties, the business community, and the military.
• Strategic Shifts: China has become more cautious in its engagement with Pakistan due to its deteriorating relationship with the U.S. and the adversarial Sino-Indian dynamic, especially after the 2017 Doklam crisis and the 2020 Ladakh clash.
• Geopolitical Tensions: CPEC has been entangled in the Sino-U.S. rivalry and is now viewed by the U.S. as a potential "debt trap" for Pakistan.

3. CPEC's Legacy

• Economic Impact: While CPEC has contributed to Pakistan's infrastructure, including road upgrades and energy projects, it has not been the economic game-changer its supporters expected.
• Debt Concerns: CPEC-related loans and sovereign guarantees have contributed to Pakistan's debt, but are not the primary cause of its economic distress.
• Technology Involvement: China's technological investments in Pakistan, such as Huawei fiber-optic cables and remote-sensing satellites, may have a more lasting impact than the physical infrastructure.
• Security Ties: The relationship between China and Pakistan remains strong, with the military being a key interlocutor, reflecting a return to traditional security-focused ties.

Key Information

• CPEC's Original Vision: CPEC was intended to be a comprehensive economic and strategic initiative, aiming to transform Pakistan's economy and enhance China's strategic position in the region.
• Current Projects: Around $25 billion has been invested, with some projects like the ML-1 railway line and Gwadar port being completed or under development.
• Renegotiations: The Pakistani government has been renegotiating the terms of CPEC, particularly the energy projects, due to its financial strain.
• Public Narrative: Despite the slowdown, both China and Pakistan are under pressure to maintain a positive public narrative around CPEC, given its symbolic importance as a flagship of the BRI.
• Future Trajectory: CPEC is expected to take a more modest path, with a focus on completing existing projects and smaller-scale initiatives, rather than ambitious new developments.

Conclusion

CPEC has evolved from an ambitious, large-scale economic and strategic initiative to a more cautious and scaled-back project. While it has contributed to Pakistan's infrastructure and remains a cornerstone of the Sino-Pakistani relationship, its impact has been limited by economic constraints, political challenges, and shifting global dynamics. The experience of CPEC underscores the need for China to adapt its BRI strategy, focusing on more sustainable and politically viable projects. The future of CPEC will likely reflect a return to traditional security and economic dynamics, with a reduced emphasis on grand transformative ambitions.