2022-04-11-奥纬咨询-Climate,_Crypto,_and_Competing_in_This_Cycle_35页_1mb

报告摘要

Report by: Morgan Stanley & Oliver Wyman
Date: April 12, 2022
Theme: Wholesale banks navigating climate transition, digital assets, and market shifts amid uncertainties.

Up to $70B in revenues driven by six key market shifts over the next three years (vs. 2019 baseline).
These shifts include: Corporate Demand, Rates Normalization, Private Markets Demand, Macro Volatility, Commodities Volatility, China Wholesale Opportunity.
Execution is paramount for growth amidst geopolitical and economic pressures.
Three economic scenarios modeled: Rising Tide, Safe Landing, Brewing Storm.

Defending the Client Franchise: Banks must engage actively in guiding clients through high-emission transitions.
Deploying Resources Rapidly to Opportunities: Agile capital allocation needed for growing markets like clean energy finance.
Sustaining Investment in Efficient Tech & Operations: Incremental tech progress can yield substantial benefits.
Delivering a Powerful Narrative: Clear articulation of climate strategy and digital asset ambitions.

Opportunity: Could add $15-20BN revenue over 3-5 years via financing de-carbonization projects.
Downside Risk: Banks may lose high-carbon clients if not proactive.
Action Areas: Investing in green tech, educating clients on emissions, skewing portfolios toward green initiatives.
Net Zero Target Alignment: Required radical portfolio adjustments; client readiness varies by sector.

Current State: Banks capture only ~2% of $4-5BN revenue pool from corporate/institutional clients.
Regulation Key: Uncertainty remains high; evolving rules will determine entry speed and terms.
Three Evolutionary Paths Predicted (Status Quo, Parallel Ecosystem, Paradigm Shift) with 5-year horizons.

Adapt Now: Banks must take immediate action despite unclear final regulations.
No-Regret Steps: Evaluate participation risks, invest in experimentation, build foundational capabilities, engage proactively with regulators.

Moving from Reform & Restructuring to Volatility-Fueled Growth; next cycle defined by execution excellence rather than legacy models.
Climate and Crypto as defining forces requiring leaders who can pivot effectively.

展开完整摘要