2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_A_stable_Libya_would_close_the_door_to_Daesh_6页_306kb

A Stable Libya Would Close the Door to Daesh

Core Content

This policy brief by Giovanni Faleg highlights the challenges of stabilizing Libya post-Gaddafi and the implications of continued instability on regional and global security, particularly the rise of Daesh. It outlines a series of recommendations aimed at achieving a sustainable and inclusive political transition in Libya.

Main Points

• Libya as a Peacebuilding Challenge: Libya has been a difficult case for peacebuilding due to its deep-rooted fragility, tribal rivalries, and endemic violence. The international community's failure to address these issues has contributed to the ongoing instability.

• Security Vacuum and Daesh Threat: The lack of a unified government and the resulting security vacuum have allowed Daesh to establish a significant presence in Libya, particularly in Sirte. The group is now the largest Daesh-affiliated force outside of Iraq and Syria, posing a threat to Libya, neighboring countries, and Europe.

• Political Stalemate: Since 2014, Libya has been divided between two competing governments: an Islamist one in Tripoli supported by Qatar and Turkey, and an anti-Islamist one in Tobruk backed by the West, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This division has stalled the political process and hindered the formation of a stable government.

• Military Interventions and Their Limitations: While Western countries have conducted targeted military operations against Daesh, these efforts have lacked a comprehensive strategy. The brief argues that air strikes alone are insufficient and that ground forces are necessary for long-term stabilisation.

Key Recommendations

1. Understand Libya's Fragility

   • Libya should not be viewed as a battleground for external powers but as a country suffering from internal conflict and instability.
   • The root causes include oil resource control, tribal and political rivalries, religious tensions, poverty, and weak governance.
   • Addressing these causes is essential to prevent a backfire on national interests.

2. Domestic Politics Should Not Hinder Stabilisation

   • Sustained commitment, adequate funding, and a military presence are necessary for long-term stability.
   • Political leaders must communicate the risks of inaction, such as Libya becoming a "Somalia in the Mediterranean."
   • Elections in Europe and the US (e.g., UK referendum, US presidential race) complicate the political will for intervention.

3. Enhance Diplomacy with Regional Actors

   • The EU and the US must work together to engage regional powers and find political solutions.
   • Diplomatic efforts should focus on resolving political logjams, such as the possibility of a three-state plan or a UN protectorate.
   • This approach is also relevant to other crises in the Middle East, like Syria and Yemen.

4. Military Plans Must Include Post-Conflict Strategy

   • A multidimensional and integrated strategy is needed to ensure political and institutional development.
   • A UN protectorate could play a central role in this framework by monitoring the political process, coordinating aid, and supporting security reform.
   • The EU could expand its role in maritime and border security through initiatives like EUNAVFOR MED and EUBAM Libya.

Conclusion

The brief concludes that a stable Libya is crucial to containing the threat of Daesh. A shift in mindset is required from international actors, who must align on a common vision for Libya’s future. Military action should be part of a broader strategy that includes political reconciliation, institutional development, and security reform. The goal is not only to defeat Daesh but to build a secure, inclusive, and stable society in Libya, which would serve as a model for effective multilateralism.