2011-12-12-奥纬咨询-The_State_of_European_Bank_Funding_56页_320kb

Securing sufficient funding is the primary challenge facing European banks post-financial crisis. The disruption to cheap wholesale funding and higher costs for long-term senior unsecured funding create significant issues. European banks are required to replace substantial amounts of legacy funding and meet new regulatory requirements like the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), which may increase average funding costs by 10-45bps by 2017. Spreads on senior unsecured debt remain well above pre-crisis levels, while covered bonds recover to pre-crisis levels, making them an attractive funding source.

Short-term funding markets face regulatory pressures from Basel III's LCR, potentially requiring terms longer than 30 days, while banks are also competing for deposits, which are the cheapest source of funding. This competition is driven by Basel III's allowance for higher usage of deposits for stable funding, and deposit rates are expected to rise with increasing interest rates. Bail-in regulations threaten to subordinate senior unsecured debt and reduce its attractiveness, pushing banks towards more encumbered asset funding.

Senior unsecured funding faces an uncertain future due to encumbrance from securitisation and bail-in legislation potential. Investors expect spreads to tighten but likely remain at crisis-levels or higher, influenced by sovereign and regulatory risks. Lenders are shifting from balance sheet-intensive lending towards fee-generating services, leading to a repricing of lending segments and potential disintermediation for high-risk areas like corporate lending. DCM and loan funds may emerge as alternatives. €2.7tn additional long-term funding may be needed to comply with NSFR, financed via covered bonds, CoCos, or deposits.

Regulators should clarify the details of LCR and NSFR to avoid unnecessary credit restrictions during recovery, while also promoting savings and supporting alternative business models for lending, like loan funds. Bail-in legislation should provide clarity on trigger points and differentiation from capital regulations.