战略与国际研究中心-World-Arms-Sales-and-The-Middle-East_73页_363kb

Summary of World Arms Sales and The Middle East

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of arms sales trends in the Middle East and related regions from 1967 to 1996, with a focus on economic impact, purchasing patterns, supplier dynamics, and the influence of key geopolitical events such as the Gulf War.

Main Points

Military Expenditures and Arms Imports (1967–1995)

• Military expenditures and arms imports in the Middle East were significant compared to other regions.
• Military spending as a percentage of GNP in the Middle East was notably higher than in other regions, reaching 16.6% in 1985 and remaining around 17% in 1991, while decreasing to 7.9% in 1995.
• Military expenditures as a percentage of central government expenditures (CGE) were also high, reaching 32.4% in 1985 and peaking at 51.0% in 1991, then declining to 23.6% in 1995.
• Arms imports represented a large portion of total imports in the Middle East, with a percentage of total imports reaching 21.6% in 1985 and declining to 9.7% in 1995.

Middle East Arms Sales Relative to Total World Sales

• Middle East arms deliveries were a major portion of the global arms market, though they showed a decline from 1984 to 1995.
• From 1987 to 1996, Middle East arms deliveries accounted for a significant share of global arms transfers, especially compared to other regions.
• The Gulf War had a noticeable impact on arms sales, with a decline in new agreements and deliveries.

Patterns in Middle Eastern Sales

• Total Middle Eastern arms agreements and deliveries decreased from 1987 to 1996, with a notable drop in the Gulf states.
• The Middle East accounted for a substantial portion of global arms deliveries, especially when compared to the Developing World and other regions.
• Major suppliers to the Middle East included the US, USSR, France, and others, with varying shares over time.
• New agreements were influenced by political and economic changes, with some countries like Saudi Arabia showing a significant decline post-Gulf War.

Patterns in Gulf Sales

• Gulf arms deliveries showed a fluctuating trend from 1985 to 1995, with a notable drop in the early 1990s.
• The Gulf War significantly reduced arms agreements and deliveries in the region.
• Saudi Arabia, in particular, saw a sharp decline in arms purchases after the Gulf War.

Patterns in Arab-Israeli Sales

• Arab-Israeli arms deliveries declined over the period 1985–1995, with a notable drop in the early 1990s.
• The Gulf War had a significant impact on arms agreements and deliveries in this region as well.
• Major suppliers to Arab-Israeli states included the US, USSR, France, and others, with varying shares over time.

Patterns in North African Sales

• North African military efforts declined as a percentage of GNP and government expenditures from 1985 to 1995.
• Arms imports in North Africa were a significant portion of total imports, with a percentage of total imports reaching 12.3% in 1985 and declining to 1% in 1995.
• The Gulf War had a noticeable effect on arms agreements and deliveries in North Africa, with some countries showing a sharp decline.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: Military expenditures and arms imports in the Middle East were a significant economic burden, especially relative to GNP and government spending.
• Gulf War Impact: The Gulf War marked a turning point in arms sales, leading to a decline in new agreements and deliveries in the Middle East and Gulf regions.
• Supplier Dynamics: The US, USSR, France, and other countries were major suppliers to the Middle East and its sub-regions, with varying shares of the market.
• Regional Comparisons: Middle East arms deliveries were consistently a major portion of the global arms market, even as they declined in absolute terms.
• Data Sources: The data was adapted from the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) and other sources, highlighting the role of these organizations in tracking global arms transfers.

Conclusion

The document outlines the significant role of arms sales in the Middle East and its sub-regions, emphasizing the economic burden of military spending and the impact of geopolitical events like the Gulf War. It also highlights the changing dynamics in arms procurement, supplier shares, and regional trends, providing a detailed overview of the arms trade in the context of broader economic and political developments.