布鲁盖尔研究所-中东和北非的经济危机（英文）-2021.1-24页_840kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Economic Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Core Content

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced a significant economic decline during the 2010s, influenced by a combination of factors including falling oil prices, domestic political instability, intra-regional conflicts, stalled reforms, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic situation has been marked by slower GDP growth, deteriorating fiscal balances, rising public debt, and persistent socio-economic challenges. The European Union (EU) plays a crucial role in the region's economic relations but needs to increase its engagement in supporting reforms and conflict resolution.

Main Socio-Economic Challenges

High Unemployment: Particularly among youth, remains a persistent issue.
Low Female Labour Participation: Reflects structural gender inequality in the region.
Poor Quality of Education: Contributes to a lack of skilled workforce.
Costly and Ineffective Public Sectors: Undermine economic efficiency and growth.
High Military and Security Spending: Diverts resources from productive sectors.
Energy Subsidies: Lead to fiscal imbalances and inefficient resource allocation.
Trade Protectionism: Hinders regional and global trade integration.

Macroeconomic Trends Pre-pandemic

GDP Growth: Slowed after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and further decelerated in the 2010s, becoming negative in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Inflation: Remained at one-digit levels in most countries, but in some (e.g., Sudan, Iran, Egypt, Libya, Yemen), it reached two-digit levels.
Fiscal Deficits: Worsened in most countries, with several exceeding 10% of GDP in 2019.
Public Debt: Increased rapidly, with some countries (e.g., Lebanon, Sudan) surpassing 170% and 200% of GDP respectively.

EU's Role in the Region

Trading Partner: The EU is the second-largest trading partner after the region itself.
FDI and Aid: A major source of foreign direct investment and aid.
Association Agreements: Includes free trade provisions, but these need updating and upgrading.
Engagement: Insufficient in conflict resolution and political transformation, requiring more intensive involvement.

Key Economic Data

GDP Growth (2015–2020) [compared to EU average], %

EU average: 2.1, 1.9, -0.7, 0, 1.7, -7.6
Algeria: 3.6, 2.8, 3.4, 2.8, 3.8, -5.5
Bahrain: 4.3, 2.0, 3.7, 5.4, 4.4, -4.9
Djibouti: 4.1, 7.3, 4.8, 5.0, 7.1, -1.0
Egypt: 5.1, 1.8, 2.2, 3.3, 2.9, 3.5
Iran: 5.7, 3.1, -7.7, -0.3, 3.2, -5.0
Iraq: 6.4, 7.5, 13.9, 7.6, 0.7, -12.1
Jordan: 2.3, 2.7, 2.4, 2.6, 3.4, -5.0
Kuwait: -2.4, 9.6, 6.6, 1.2, 0.5, -8.1
Lebanon: 8.0, 0.9, 2.5, 3.8, 2.5, -25.0
Libya: 3.2, -66.7, 124.7, -36.8, -53.0, -66.7
Mauritania: 2.6, 4.2, 4.5, 4.2, 4.3, -3.2
Morocco: 3.8, 5.2, 3.0, 4.5, 2.7, -7.0
Oman: 2.0, 2.6, 9.1, 5.1, 1.4, -10.0
Qatar: 17.7, 11.3, 4.7, 5.6, 5.3, -4.5
Saudi Arabia: 5.0, 10.0, 5.4, 2.7, 3.7, -5.4
Sudan: 3.9, -3.2, -17.0, 2.0, 4.7, -8.4
Tunisia: 3.5, -1.9, 4.1, 2.8, 2.9, -7.0
UAE: 1.6, 6.9, 4.5, 5.1, 4.3, -6.6
Yemen: 7.7, -12.7, 5.8, 8.1, 10.0, -5.0

Inflation (2010–2019) [compared to EU average], %

EU average: 2.5, 2.8, 2.4, 0.8, -0.1, 0.2, 1.1, 1.5, 1.6, 1.6
Algeria: 2.7, 5.2, 9.0, 1.1, 5.3, 4.4, 7.0, 4.9, 2.7, 2.4
Bahrain: 1.0, 0.2, 2.6, 4.0, 2.5, 0.8, 2.3, 1.3, 1.9, 1.7
Djibouti: 2.8, 7.6, 1.1, 1.1, 3.4, -1.6, 2.4, -0.8, 2.0, 3.3
Egypt: 10.2, 11.8, 7.2, 9.9, 8.3, 11.3, 14.0, 29.8, 14.4, 9.4
Iran: 19.8, 20.6, 41.3, 19.6, 16.2, 8.4, 11.8, 8.3, 54.1, 26.0
Iraq: 3.3, 6.0, 3.6, 3.1, 1.6, 2.3, -1.5, 0.2, -0.1, 4.4
Jordan: 5.6, 0.5, -6.6, -5.1, -4.8, -4.2, -3.7, -3.6, -4.7, -6.0
Kuwait: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Lebanon: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Libya: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Mauritania: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Morocco: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Oman: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Qatar: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Saudi Arabia: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Sudan: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Tunisia: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
UAE: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Yemen: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3

General Government Net Lending/Borrowing (2010–2019), % of GDP

EU average: -6.0, -4.1, -5.1, -3.4, -2.8, -2.4, -1.8, -1.3, -0.8, -0.6
Algeria: -0.5, -3.4, -5.1, -7.4, -3.3, -5.2, -6.2, -5.9, -4.6, -3.9
Bahrain: -5.8, -1.5, -5.1, -7.4, -3.3, -5.2, -6.2, -5.9, -4.6, -3.9
Djibouti: -0.5, -3.4, -5.1, -7.4, -3.3, -5.2, -6.2, -5.9, -4.6, -3.9
Egypt: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Iran: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Iraq: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Jordan: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Kuwait: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Lebanon: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Libya: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Mauritania: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Morocco: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Oman: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Qatar: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Saudi Arabia: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Sudan: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Tunisia: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
UAE: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3
Yemen: -4.1, -4.5, -6.3, -6.9, -4.1, -8.8, -8.5, -4.9, -7.8, -5.3

General Government Gross and Net Debt (2010–2019), % of GDP

EU average: 80.6, 88.5, 86.7, 85.9, 83.3, 81.3, 79.2, 63.8, 71.1, 70.0, 69.4, 67.1, 65.4, 64.0
Algeria: 10.5, 7.6, 8.7, 20.5, 27.3, 38.2, 46.3, -33.7, -29.5, -7.6, 13.3, 21.6, 25.4, 30.5
Bahrain: 29.7, 43.9, 66.4, 81.3, 88.1, 95.0, 103.4, 2.9, -5.6, 23.0, 33.1, 24.5, 27.9, 41.0
Djibouti: 27.9, 24.6, 40.2, 45.9, 48.2, 46.5, 38.5, 27.1, 22.7, 38.2, 44.0, 46.3, 45.5, 38.3
Egypt: 69.6, 84.0, 88.5, 96.8, 103.2, 92.7, 83.8, 57.1, 73.7, 78.8, 88.2, 93.9, 81.3, 74.4
Iran: 12.7, 10.7, 39.7, 46.2, 38.2, 40.3, 44.7, 2.9, -5.6, 23.0, 33.1, 24.5, 27.9, 41.0
Iraq: 53.5, 32.0, 56.8, 64.3, 58.9, 48.9, 46.9, 3.1, 4.7, 5.4, 6.3, 7.4, 7.6, 8.0
Jordan: 59.4, 75.6, 78.4, 77.4, 76.0, 75.1, 78.0, 57.5, 72.2, 75.8, 74.4, 73.6, 73.9, 77.3
Kuwait: 6.2, 3.1, 4.7, 10.0, 20.5, 14.8, 11.8, 3.1, 4.7, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8
Lebanon: 136.8, 135.3, 140.8, 146.2, 149.7, 154.9, 174.5, 127.6, 126.0, 134.4, 140.5, 144.1, 150.6, 169.2
Mauritania: 43.9, 40.0, 58.7, 56.6, 55.1, 61.4, 58.1, 43.3, 38.7, 57.5, 55.7, 54.0, 59.0, 57.1
Morocco: 49.0, 61.7, 63.7, 64.9, 65.1, 65.3, 65.8, 48.5, 61.2, 63.1, 64.4, 64.7, 65.0, 65.5
Oman: 5.8, 5.0, 15.5, 32.7, 46.4, 53.2, 63.1, -19.6, -28.8, -22.8, -1.0, 13.4, 32.1, 41.5
Qatar: 30.4, 30.9, 35.5, 46.7, 51.6, 46.5, 56.2, 3.1, 4.7, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8
Saudi Arabia: 8.4, 2.1, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8, -36.9, -50.9, -35.9, -17.1, -7.7, -0.1, 5.0
Sudan: 62.4, 76.7, 66.5, 58.6, 159.2, 186.7, 201.6, 3.1, 4.7, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8
Tunisia: 39.2, 46.8, 55.4, 62.3, 70.6, 78.2, 72.3, 3.1, 4.7, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8
UAE: 19.5, 16.0, 16.7, 19.4, 21.6, 20.9, 27.3, 3.1, 4.7, 5.8, 13.1, 17.2, 19.0, 22.8
Yemen: 42.4, 48.2, 57.0, 72.3, 77.4, 74.5, 76.5, 38.3, 46.7, 56.1, 71.3, 76.6, 73.8, 75.8

Key Recommendations

Comprehensive Reforms: Needed to address long-term socio-economic and institutional challenges.
Enhanced EU Engagement: The EU should increase its involvement in conflict resolution and economic transformation.
Updated Trade Agreements: Strengthen and modernise existing association agreements with the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries.
Fiscal Consolidation: Improve fiscal discipline and reduce deficits.
Trade Liberalisation: Increase trade openness and reduce non-tariff barriers to enhance economic integration.
Stable Business Environment: Improve macroeconomic stability and investment climate to attract more foreign investment.

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