深度-DNV-2021年油气行业展望（英文）-2021.6-15页_7mb

TURMOIL AND TRANSFORMATION: Oil and Gas Industry Outlook for 2021

Core Content Summary

This report, Turmoil and Transformation, provides an in-depth analysis of the oil and gas industry's outlook for 2021, based on a global survey of over 1,000 senior professionals and in-depth interviews with industry experts. Published by DNV, it highlights the significant changes and challenges the sector faces due to the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as broader shifts towards decarbonization and digital transformation.

Key Trends for 2021

1. Confidence Falls Hard, and the Industry Considers Whether This Downturn Is Different

• Industry Confidence: Only 39% of respondents are confident about industry growth in 2021, with the same proportion being pessimistic.
• Historical Comparison: This is a notable drop from 76% confidence in 2018 and 7% pessimism, but higher than the 28% confidence seen in 2014 following the last oil price crash.
• Pandemic Impact: The crisis has led to a sustained lower demand and prices, unlike previous downturns, which were more cyclical.
• Policy Shifts: The US and China have shifted toward greener policies, with the US rejoining the Paris Agreement and China committing to carbon neutrality by 2060. Europe is also leading the energy transition.
• Sector Divergence: Downstream companies show the greatest difference between organizational and industry confidence.

2. More Transformational Approaches to Cost Reduction Are Needed

• Cost Efficiency as a Priority: 96% of professionals consider cost efficiency a priority, with 77% rating it as a high or top priority.
• Traditional Methods Hit Limits: The industry is moving toward more innovative and transformational cost-cutting strategies.
• Headcount Reductions: 36% of respondents expect headcount reductions in 2021, the highest since 2017.
• Digitalization as a Key Lever: Digitalization is seen as the biggest opportunity for cost efficiency, with 68% of respondents planning to increase investment in digitalization in 2021.
• Digital Transformation: The industry is increasingly adopting technologies like AI, automation, and cloud-based applications to improve agility and efficiency.

3. Industry Pivoting to a World Beyond Peak Oil Demand

• Peak Oil Demand: Many forecasts suggest that global oil demand has already peaked, with some predicting it to occur in the 2020s.
• Industry Response: Companies are adapting to declining demand by shifting strategies, with 19% of respondents indicating that they are not prioritizing renewable energy or decarbonization.
• Strategic Reorientation: The industry is seeing increased consolidation and asset sales, with 78% of respondents expecting more mergers and acquisitions in 2021.
• Investment in Renewables: 57% of respondents say their organization will increase investment in renewable energy projects in 2021.

4. Multiple Energy and Decarbonization Transformations Will Dominate the Agenda

• Decarbonization Focus: Companies are increasingly committing to reducing emissions, with 66% of respondents indicating their organization is actively adapting to a lower-carbon energy mix.
• Long-Term Vision: BP, for example, has pledged to become a net-zero company by 2050, with a focus on renewables and reduced oil and gas production.
• Digital Integration: The industry is moving toward more integrated and collaborative digital solutions, with a strong emphasis on data quality and availability.
• Market Uncertainty: Despite the push for transformation, it is unclear how quickly or significantly these changes will impact global oil and gas consumption.

Conclusion: How Different Is the Market Downturn This Time?

• The 2020 crisis is perceived as more severe and sustained than previous downturns, with a global impact and long-term policy shifts.
• While the industry is adapting to new realities, the pace and extent of change remain uncertain, leading to diverse strategies and deep uncertainty.
• Digitalization and transformation are key to future resilience, but the industry must improve data management and continue to innovate in order to thrive in the new energy landscape.