2024-05-12-亚开行-俄罗斯入侵乌克兰_化肥价格和粮食安全_来自亚洲稻米生产经济体的证据（英）_47页_1mb

Summary of "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Fertilizer Prices, and Food Security: Evidence from Rice-Producing Economies in Asia"

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the impact of increased fertilizer prices on rice production, consumption, trade, and prices in Asia, particularly in rice-producing economies, using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework. The study is motivated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted global fertilizer markets due to export restrictions and increased natural gas prices.

Main Findings

• Fertilizer Price Increases: A 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33% and increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025.
• Rice Production:
  • A 30% increase in fertilizer prices reduces global rice production by 0.45% in 2022, with a slight rebound in 2026 (0.21% to 0.51% increase).
  • A 50% increase leads to a more pronounced decline in production (0.68% in 2022), with a slower recovery in 2026 (0.31% increase).
  • A 100% increase causes the most significant drop in production (1.12% in 2022), with a modest recovery in 2026 (0.51% increase).
• Rice Consumption:
  • Consumption decreases under all scenarios from 2022 to 2025.
  • A 30% increase leads to a 0.78% to 0.66% decrease in consumption.
  • A 100% increase leads to a 0.64% to 0.66% decrease.
  • In 2026, consumption rebounds slightly, increasing by 0.06% and 0.15% under 30% and 100% price increases, respectively.
• Rice Trade:
  • Global rice trade declines significantly under all scenarios.
  • A 30% increase in fertilizer prices leads to a 1.66% to 2.82% decrease in trade.
  • A 50% increase leads to a 2.54% to 4.27% decrease.
  • A 100% increase results in a 4.29% to 7.03% decrease.
• Retail and Farm-Gate Prices:
  • Retail prices for rice increase in all rice-consuming countries.
  • Thai 5% broken rice prices increase by 9.12% to 22.76% in 2022–2025, with a slight decrease in 2026 (1.49% to 3.69% decline) as the market adjusts.

Key Information

• Fertilizer's Role in Rice Production: Fertilizers, especially nitrogen, are critical for rice yield and growth. Phosphorus and potassium also play essential roles in root development and pest resistance.
• Impact of Russian Invasion: The invasion has led to export restrictions, increased natural gas prices, and higher fertilizer costs, affecting both production and trade.
• Economic Implications: Fertilizer price increases have a significant impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and rural populations in Asia and other developing and emerging economies (DEEs).
• Regional Differences:
  • In Asia, rice is a staple food, and production and consumption vary significantly by country.
  • In Africa, rice consumption has grown rapidly, though production remains relatively low.
  • In South America, rice consumption has also increased, driven by population growth and income rise.
• Modeling Approach: The study uses a modified version of the IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM) to simulate the effects of fertilizer price increases on the rice sector under three scenarios: 30%, 50%, and 100% increases.
• Long-Term Adjustments: Over time, the negative effects of fertilizer price increases may be mitigated by the adoption of new technologies, substitution of organic for inorganic fertilizers, and more sustainable practices.

Conclusion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a substantial impact on global fertilizer markets, leading to increased prices and reduced supply. This has, in turn, affected rice production, consumption, and trade in Asia and other regions. The study highlights the need for policy interventions to support farmers and ensure food security in the face of rising fertilizer costs and geopolitical instability.