那提西银行-欧洲-宏观理论-法国不应该使用额外的增长来实现财政政策的更大扩张-20180320-5页_562kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the economic situation of France in 2017 and 2018, focusing on the slight improvement in growth and its implications for fiscal policy. It argues against using the improved public finances to adopt a more expansionary fiscal stance, highlighting several key reasons for this caution.

Main Points

1. Slight Growth Improvement in France

• Growth Forecast Revisions: In 2017 and 2018, France's GDP growth was revised upwards, indicating better-than-expected economic performance.
• Public Finance Impact: The improved growth has led to a slight enhancement in the public finance situation, particularly in terms of the fiscal deficit (Chart 2).

2. Fiscal Policy Should Remain Prudent

• Fiscal Solvency: France's fiscal solvency was only just ensured in 2018, marking the first time since 2008 that the country has achieved this (Chart 3).
• Supply Constraints: French companies are facing significant recruitment difficulties, leading to rigid domestic production. Stimulating domestic demand could worsen the trade balance (Charts 4B and 4C).
• Unemployment Priority: The surplus from the growth should be directed towards reducing unemployment, not to increase incomes of those who retained jobs during the recession.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The analysis is based on forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and Consensus Forecast, as well as data from Natixis.
• Recommendation: The economic recovery should not be used to justify more expansionary fiscal policies, as this could be ineffective and counterproductive.
• Confidentiality: The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential.

Conclusion

The document concludes that France should not use the current economic improvement to shift towards a more expansionary fiscal policy. This is due to the fragile fiscal solvency, supply-side constraints, and the need to prioritize unemployment reduction over distributing additional income to those who have retained jobs.

Disclaimer

• The document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the information, and it is not a complete analysis of all relevant factors.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from those of Natixis or other entities.
• The information is not verified or independently analyzed by Natixis and is based on public data.
• The document is subject to the regulatory frameworks of various jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank, ACPR, AMF, FCA, and DFSA.

Regulatory Information

• Supervision: Natixis is supervised by the ECB and regulated in France by the ACPR and AMF.
• Authorization: It is authorized to provide investment services in multiple countries, including the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy.
• London Branch: In the UK, Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the FCA and PRA.
• Dubai: In Dubai, Natixis is authorized by the DFSA and operates under the right of establishment.

Additional Notes

• The document includes several charts (Chart 1 to Chart 5) illustrating GDP growth, fiscal deficit, and trade balance.
• All views and recommendations are the personal opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of Natixis.
• The document does not take into account specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any individual.