20250916-大越期货-沪铝早报_14页_2mb

ALUMINUM MARKET REPORT SUMMARY FROM DA YUE FUTURES

This report is from Da Yue Futures Investment Consulting Department, authored by Zhu Senlin with credentials including business license code F3023048 and investment consulting ID Z0013626. It covers the authorization under securities license证监许可【2012】1091号.

Important: The report provides general market views on aluminum, not specific investment advice. It is not part of futures trading consultancy. Market risks exist; users should act cautiously and seek professional advice as needed.

ALUMINUM ANALYSIS

• Fundamentals: Neutral outlook due to carbon-neutral policies limiting capacity expansion; weak downstream demand, including real estate; and volatile macroeconomic sentiment.
• Basis: Spot price at 20950, basis -70 (backwardation), maintaining a neutral stance.
• Inventory: SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 4421 tons to 128499 tons, with no significant directional implication.
• Price Chart: Closed above the 20-day moving average, which is rising, indicating slightly bullish momentum.
• Main Position: Net long position among主力, with a slight decrease, supporting a moderately positive view.
• Expectations: Long-term positive factors from carbon-neutral industry transformation and US tariffs on steel-aluminum; however, short-term price oscillation is expected due to mixed factors like interest rate cuts and demand weakness.

KEY FACTORS

• Bullish: Carbon-neutral supply control, geopolitical disruptions affecting Russian supply, interest rate cuts.
• Bearish: Weak global economy, high prices suppressing demand, removal of export tax refunds.
• Logic: Trade-off between stimulus from reduced interest rates and ongoing demand constraints.

Data originates from Wind (various indices and sources).

Disclaimer: This report is for reference only. No liability for any losses incurred. Da Yue Futures and the author are not responsible for decisions based on this report.

Company details: Securities code 839979; address: 广东省绍兴市越城区解放北路186号7楼; phone: 0575-88333535; email: dyqh@dyqh.info.