2012年-世界发展银行全球_Reducing_Elderly_Poverty_in_Thailand___The_Role_of_Thailands_Pension_and_Social_Assistance_Programs_48页_1mb

Summary of Reducing Elderly Poverty in Thailand

Core Content

This document analyzes the challenges of elderly poverty in Thailand and evaluates the country's pension and social assistance programs to suggest improvements in efficiency, targeting, and fiscal sustainability. It highlights the demographic shift towards an aging population and the inadequacy of current programs in addressing the needs of the elderly poor.

Main Points

1. Population Aging

• Thailand's population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of people over 60 expected to rise from ~15% in 2010 to ~35% by 2060.
• The labor force will peak around 2023 and then decline, leading to a higher dependency ratio (currently ~56%) and an eventual shift where more people will be non-working dependents than working citizens.
• By 2070, the dependency ratio is projected to exceed 100%, meaning more elderly will be supported by a shrinking working-age population.

2. Elderly Poverty

• The elderly have a higher poverty rate (10.9%) compared to the overall population (7.7%) in 2010.
• Elderly living in one-generation families (without working younger members) are more likely to be poor.
• The near-poor (those with consumption between 100% and 120% of the poverty line) make up a significant portion of the elderly population, with nearly 18% being vulnerable to falling into poverty.
• Economic shocks, such as medical expenses, can easily push near-poor elderly into poverty.

3. Current Pension Programs

• Thailand has eight separate pension programs, covering different segments of the labor market.
• Formal sector workers are covered under the Old Age Pension (OAP) program and other statutory schemes.
• Civil servants receive both a defined benefit from the state budget and a defined contribution from the Government Pension Fund (GPF), making them the least likely to be poor post-retirement.
• Informal sector workers are mostly not covered by formal pension schemes, making them the primary target for social pensions.

4. Social Pension for the Informal Sector

• The Social Pension under Article 11(11) of the Old Age Act is the main program for the elderly poor.
• It is a universal program, providing monthly benefits to all citizens over 60, regardless of income.
• The program has been modified to increase benefits with age, rather than providing a flat rate.
• However, it is inefficient as most of the benefits go to non-poor individuals.
• The estimated fiscal cost of the current program is 63.2 billion baht, but if targeted to only the poor, it could be reduced to 8.4 billion baht.
• If benefits were adjusted to fully eliminate the poverty gap, the cost could increase to 16–26 billion baht, depending on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of the elderly.

5. Voluntary Pension Programs for the Informal Sector

• Two new voluntary programs have been introduced for the informal sector: the National Savings Fund (NSF) and the Modified SSO Program under Article 40.
• These programs include government matching contributions to encourage participation.
• Early evidence suggests low take-up, with participants likely being self-employed professionals or wealthier individuals.
• The poor may not be able to afford regular contributions, leading to limited impact on elderly poverty.

6. Formal Sector Pension Programs

• The Old Age Pension (OAP) program, under Articles 33 and 39 of the Social Security Act, provides retirement benefits to formal sector workers.
• It requires 15 years of contributions to qualify, with benefits based on final salary and years of service.
• The program started in 1999, with the first benefits paid in 2014.
• It is not fiscally sustainable due to low retirement age, generous benefit formula, and rapid population aging.

7. Policy Recommendations

• Consolidate pension programs to reduce overlap and improve efficiency.
• Target social pensions more effectively to the poorest elderly, reducing fiscal costs and improving impact.
• Improve fiscal sustainability of pension systems through better design and management.
• Simplify and rationalize the regulatory framework for pension programs, including establishing a dedicated pension supervision body.
• Enhance social assistance programs to better support the elderly poor, especially those in the informal sector.

Key Information

• Number of pension programs: 8
• Current social pension cost: ~63.2 billion baht (2010 SES)
• Estimated cost if targeted: ~8.4 billion baht
• Estimated cost if fully eliminating poverty gap: ~16–26 billion baht
• Coverage of social pension (2010): 5.559 million out of 10.066 million elderly people
• Coverage of formal sector pensions (2010): ~12 million out of 38 million labor force members
• Coverage of informal sector pensions (2010): ~1 million (community funds)
• Poverty rate for elderly in 2010: 10.9%
• Projected dependency ratio by 2070: >100%
• Main pension program for informal sector: Social Pension under Article 11(11) of the Old Age Act

Tables and Figures Summary

Figures:

• Figure ES1: Total Population
• Figure ES2: Population Composition (%)
• Figure ES3: Poverty Rate by Age and Gender (2010)
• Figure 1: Total Population
• Figure 2: Population Composition (%)
• Figure 3: Labor Force and LFP Rate
• Figure 4: Dependency Ratios (%)
• Figure 5: Poverty Headcount Ratio (%)
• Figure 6: Poverty Rate by Age and Gender (2010)
• Figure 7: Poverty and Vulnerability Rates by Age Group (2010)

Conclusion

Thailand faces a significant challenge in reducing elderly poverty due to an aging population, persistent inequality, and the inefficiency of its current pension and social assistance programs. The government is advised to:

• Consolidate and rationalize pension programs.
• Improve targeting of social pensions to the poorest.
• Ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Strengthen the legal and regulatory framework for pension systems.