国际清算银行-新兴市场经济体的财政和货币政策：风险和政策权衡是什么？（英）-2023.3-9页_643kb

报告总结：BIS Bulletin No 71 - Fiscal and monetary policy in emerging market economies: what are the risks and policy trade-offs?

This analysis examines the fiscal and monetary policy dynamics in emerging market economies (EMEs) since the pandemic, focusing on risks and policy trade-offs in an environment of high inflation and tightening financial conditions.

Main Findings:

• Since 2021, global monetary policy has tightened to combat inflation, while EME fiscal policies have remained largely expansive through subsidies, transfers, and other support measures to mitigate the impacts of energy and food price surges. This combination increases government funding needs and debt service costs due to higher interest rates, potentially straining fiscal sustainability.
• EMEs are historically more vulnerable to changes in international financing costs and exchange rate weakens, leading to higher sovereign risk premia and currency depreciation. For example, a expansion in the primary deficit can increase five-year CDS spreads by about 50 basis points on average, causing local currency depreciation.

Financial Risks:

• High levels of debt and persistent fiscal deficits can trigger adverse market reactions, such as reduced demand for sovereign bonds, higher borrowing costs in international markets, and capital flow reversals. EMEs with significant foreign-currency-denominated debt face amplified risks, including reduced access to funding and currency risk for investors.
• Capital flows can be negatively impacted; larger fiscal deficits correlate with negative portfolio flows, and higher debt increases the probability of capital stops or reversals.
• Tighter global financial conditions, driven by central bank rate hikes and a strong dollar, exacerbate these risks by heightening sovereign risk and potentially leading to policy feedback loops.

Policy Trade-offs and Recommendations:

• Fiscal policy expansion, while intended for short-term support, risks prolonging inflation if not sustainable. EMEs should pursue a "triple-T" approach—temporary, targeted, and tailoed support—to ensure clarity on consolidation, avoiding the "triple-E" (expanded, extensive, extended) stance that complicates debt management.
• Monetary policy tightening increases costs for debt service and public financing, but a lack of stronger fiscal action could undermine currency stability and inflation control. Central banks must balance these to maintain credibility and avoid constrained policy options.
• Overall, EMEs need Sound fiscal accounts to mitigate risks, with fiscal authorities prioritizing transparency and exit strategies that align with medium-term goals, reducing the likelihood of sudden capital flight or prolonged economic imbalances.

This Bulletin highlights the interconnected challenges of inflation, financing conditions, and policy coordination in EMEs.