20231010-招银国际-同程旅行-00780.HK-Share_gain_continued_in_Golden_Week_5页_839kb

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) received a company update from CMB International Global Markets, highlighting strong performance and growth prospects despite mixed industrial data for domestic tourism during the Golden Week. Analysts Sophie Huang and Eason Xu recommend maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of HK$25.1, representing a potential 63% upside from the current price. The report emphasizes robust growth in hotel and long-haul travel, with specific forecasts including a 100% increase in room nights (vs. 2019) and 30% growth in air ticketing volume during the upcoming Golden Week, aligning with summer holiday trends. Quarterly revenue for Q3 2023 is expected to grow by 56% year-over-year, while full-year 2023 revenue is projected at +96% year-over-year. The analysts attribute this confidence to sustained demand from exam-related accommodation and a strategy to capture market share. However, recent price pullback is attributed to mixed industrial data, profit-taking, and market concerns over normalized earnings for FY24 and FY25. Financially, the company's earnings projections and margins remain resilient, with target P/E and P/S ratios supporting the valuation. The analysis includes detailed revenue breakdowns, financial summaries, and risk disclosures, reinforcing the BUY recommendation while cautioning investors about external factors.