2023-01-18-普华永道-电气化卡车的黎明_32页_2mb

The Dawn of Electrified Trucking Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the trajectory of electrification in the trucking industry, focusing on the European market and the triad markets (North America, EU, and Greater China). It emphasizes the role of regulatory, economic, and geopolitical drivers in accelerating the transition to zero-emission trucks.

Main Points

Electrification Timeline

• 2025: Electric truck market diffusion begins with ~5% of production.
• 2030: Breakthrough with ~30% of European truck production being zero-emission.
• 2035: Dominance with ~80% of electric trucks in the triad markets.

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

• BET outperforms ICE from 2025 onwards, reaching a ~30% cost advantage by 2030.
• FCT becomes competitive with ICE starting from 2030.
• Energy costs are the main TCO driver, with variations affecting TCO by ±14 €-ct/km.
• Depot charging is cost-effective for limited investment, while public charging infrastructure is essential for growth.

Regulatory Drivers

• The EU mandates a 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions for new trucks by 2030, potentially up to 60%.
• Penalties for manufacturers start from 2025 and increase to €6,800 per gram of CO₂ per tonne-km from 2030.
• ZEVs benefit from 50% road toll discounts in the EU, saving up to €25k per truck annually.

Economic Drivers

• Green funding supports electrification, with the EU planning €5bn for charging networks and €1.6bn for ZEV purchases.
• Fleet savings are significant due to lower energy costs and incentives.

Geopolitical Drivers

• Energy autarky is a key goal for European countries, with full electrification reducing oil consumption by ~22%.
• Electrification reduces dependency on oil, aligning with broader energy security strategies.

Key Technologies

Battery Electric Trucks (BET)

• Advantages: High efficiency, low energy costs, and public acceptance.
• Costs: ~€90k additional cost in 2030 for long-haul BET; cost gap narrows by 2035.
• Battery demand: Expected to exceed 800 GWh in the triad markets by 2035, with ~15% of total battery demand.
• Battery capacity: Up to 850 kWh in 2030.

Fuel Cell Trucks (FCT)

• Advantages: High flexibility due to fast refueling and public acceptance.
• Costs: ~€90k additional cost in 2030 for long-haul FCT.
• Hydrogen demand: Up to 80 kg stored in tanks in 2030.

Overhead Catenary Hybrid (CAT)

• Competitiveness questionable: High upfront costs and underutilization of infrastructure.

Synthetic Fuel ICE (SYT)

• Competitiveness questionable: High renewable energy investment and low end-to-end efficiency.

Infrastructure Requirements

• 2023/24: ~30 stations for a European pilot network.
• 2025/27: ~100 stations for an area-coverage network.
• 2035: ~2,000 stations for a high-demand network.
• Charging infrastructure investment: Up to €1 billion for 120 MCS stations by 2025.
• Long-term infrastructure needs: ~1,800 charging parks and ~2,100 HRS stations by 2035, with investments of ~€15bn for MCS and ~€21bn for HRS.

Market Outlook

• 2030: ~900k BET/FCT produced in triad markets (~200k in North America and Europe, ~500k in Greater China).
• 2035: BET/FCT production reaches ~2.25 million units in triad markets.
• Europe’s HD BET/FCT production: ~130k units by 2030, with medium-duty and bus segments having lesser relevance.

Recommendations

For OEMs

• Develop a competitive zero-emission product portfolio with a focus on product cost and efficiency.
• Concentrate R&D on battery and fuel cell technologies.
• Offer turnkey depot solutions in collaboration with energy suppliers.
• Secure long-term energy contracts to hedge electricity price risks.

For Suppliers

• Review conventional powertrain portfolios and adapt to the new zero-emission trucking business.
• Build new value and supply chains and conceptualize battery recycling.

For the Public Sector

• Regulate emissions targets and support green funding.
• Invest in public infrastructure and supply renewable energy.

For Logistics Fleets

• Mitigate electricity price risks through long-term contracts.
• Rethink mobility concepts and define new investment needs.

Conclusion

Truck electrification is expected to break through in 2030, driven by TCO and regulation. The triad markets are leading the transition, with Europe as a front runner. The build-up of charging infrastructure is crucial for the ramp-up phase, and collaboration across the value chain is essential for the successful transition to zero-emission trucks.