2025-05-26-Bernstein-欧洲食品与家庭及个人护理产品_尽管消费者存在不确定性_美国扫描数据依然坚挺_44页_1mb

European Food & HPC Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the performance of the Food and Home & Personal Care (HPC) markets in the U.S., based on updated scanner data for the four-week period ending 17th May 2025. It also includes performance data for several major consumer goods companies, such as Nestlé, Unilever, L'Oréal, Danone, Reckitt, Beiersdorf, and Haleon, along with investment implications and market share insights.

Key Highlights

• Overall Market Moderation: Across the CPG landscape, all categories experienced a slight moderation in both value and volume growth in May compared to the previous period.
• Volume Decline: Most categories saw a decline in volume growth, with only Unilever and Nestlé showing positive volume growth.
• Private Label (PL) Share: PL share remained weak in most categories, with some declines in May.
• Nestlé's Performance: Nestlé's volume growth remained robust at +5.5%, though value growth declined to +2.2%. The company appears to benefit from Danone's Coffee Creamer recall.
• Unilever's Strong Performance: Unilever achieved a +30 basis point increase in market share and +4.0% value growth, driven by strong volume growth of +3.7%.
• Danone's Challenges: Danone's volume performance was significantly affected by the Coffee Creamer recall, with a -10% decline in volume.
• Reckitt's Weakness: Reckitt's volume growth declined by -2.8%, attributed to volume losses in the IMF and a weak Cold & Flu season.
• L'Oréal's Performance: L'Oréal experienced low single-digit value growth, driven by volume growth but partially offset by pricing declines.
• Haleon's Weakness: Haleon's volume growth was weak, with a decline of -3.6%, and Nielsen data may not fully capture its performance.
• Beiersdorf's Flat Performance: Beiersdorf reported nearly flat value growth at +0.3%, driven by price/mix growth and weak volume.
• Lindt's Easter Impact: Lindt's performance was affected by the shift in Easter timing, with value growth of +25% when combining data from the last two periods, but primarily due to price/mix.

Key Market Segments

Food Market

• Value Growth: Moderated to +2.5% in May, down from +5.1% in April.
• Volume Growth: Deteriorated to +0.3%, down from +3.0% in April.
• PL Share: Remained weak at +8bps, down from +10bps in April.

Beauty & Personal Care (B&PC) Market

• Value Growth: Moderated to +4.0% in May, down from +4.9% in April.
• Volume Growth: Declined to +0.9%, down from +1.9% in April.
• PL Share: Declined by -23bps in May, in line with April's performance.

Household Market

• Volume Growth: Flat at +1.7% in May, following +1.7% in April.
• Price/Mix Growth: Improved slightly to +0.8%, up from +0.3% in April.
• PL Share Losses: Increased to -51bps in May, up from -20bps in April.

Consumer Health Market

• Value Growth: Recorded LSD growth at +1.9%, down from +3.1% in April.
• Volume Growth: Moderated to +0.9%, down from +2.1% in April.

Company Performance

Investment Implications

• Outperform: Beiersdorf (€155), Unilever (€62.8/£52)
• Market-Perform: Danone (€77), Henkel (€94.92 preference / €84 ordinary), Haleon (£4.0), Nestlé (CHF 73), L'Oréal (€380), Reckitt (£55)
• Underperform: Lindt (CHF 90,000/9,000)

Notes and Methodology

• The report includes Amazon retail sales data from April 2025 onwards, alongside existing xAOC+C channel data.
• This data addition allows for a more comprehensive view of market trends.
• Nielsen data may not fully represent all distribution channels, particularly for L'Oréal.
• Easter adjustment is applied to certain categories to reflect seasonal variations accurately.
• The report is internally consistent but may not align with previously published data.