PitchBook-2025年二季度美国PE细分（英）-2025_32页_2mb

Q2 2025 US PE BREAKDOWN: Executive Summary and Analysis

Executive Summary

Are We So Back?

• The post-pandemic enthusiasm has cooled, but a risk-on appetite is slowly returning.
• Tariff concerns have subsided, reviving business confidence, but structural risks in credit quality warrant attention.
• The best-case scenario for PE depends on a finely balanced environment with stable trade policy, subdued inflation, and declining interest rates.
• A "sideways" market is more likely, with reduced deal activity and exits.

Key Highlights

Economic Outlook and Credit Quality

• Credit quality deterioration in both business and consumer loans is a primary concern.
• Consumer loan delinquency rates are at decade highs, stifling earnings and credit expansion.
• Student loan defaults are front and center, estimated to have created a $150-160 billion shadow stimulus annually.

Deal Activity

• PE deal activity in Q2 2025 totaled $227.7 billion, representing an 18.4% QoQ pullback and a 10.7% YoY gain.
• Deal count rose 8.2% YoY to 4,429 deals (including estimates).
• Transaction volume stabilized despite trade uncertainty, supported by megadeals and improved visibility, especially around US-China trade talks.

Deal Value by Sector

• B2B and technology sectors drove deal activity with companies adapting to supply chain diversification and technological innovation.
• West Coast saw a 24.6% share of deals, the highest in five years, bolstered by megadeals.
• The South's share slipped to 10%, the lowest in five years.

Exit and Fundraising Trends

• Exit activity cooled significantly with Q2 exit value declining 46.4% QoQ to $118.5 billion.
• Corporate acquisitions remain dominant, but deal volume has slowed.
• Fundraising also slowed, with total capital raised in Q2 at $539 billion, below the previous quarter and 2024 levels.

Valuation and Financing

• Valuation multiples, including EV/EBITDA, are near pre-pandemic levels but remain below 2017-2019 averages.
• Debt/EBITDA multiples for bank-sponsored loans have stabilized, indicating less reliance on aggressive leverage.

Spotlight: Transportation & Logistics

• Deals in the sector peaked in 2021 but are recovering due to trade uncertainty.
• The industry is adapting to nearshoring, reshoring, and technological adoption, with resilience observed despite policy shifts.

Conclusion

The US PE market is navigating a period of wait-and-see following trade policy shifts. Deal activity and valuations have recovered slightly, but exits and fundraising remain under pressure. The focus is on high-quality companies and strategic investments amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.