2025-06-10-Bernstein-美洲酒精饮料美国啤酒_扫描数据_啤酒的艰难阵亡将士纪念日_12页_537kb

US Beer Market Update: Q1 2025 Performance and Trends

Date: June 10, 2025

The US beer market experienced widespread volume declines based on scanner data. Overall industry volumes fell -6.5% YoY on a 2-week trailing basis ending May 31st, with a sequential weakening compared to prior weeks. On a 4-week trailing basis, the market declined -5.3% YoY, and on a 12-week basis, the drop was -4.1% YoY, indicating a sustained decline across key periods.

Key Market Dynamics

• Brewery Performance:
  • Constellation Brands: Gained market share by 50bps YoY but faced volume declines; on a 2-week trailing basis, volumes dropped -3.7%, worsening sequentially.
  • AB InBev (ABI): Volume declines (-5.3% on 2-week, -3.3% on 12-week basis), but market share increased 30bps YoY, supported by brands like Michelob Ultra (+1.4% YoY on 4-week basis).
  • Molson Coors: The largest relative loser, with volumes down -8.7% on 2-week basis and market share lost 60bps. Declines hit brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite.
  • Boston Beer: Experiencing a strong double-digit volume decline (-12.9% on 2-week basis), with brands Twisted Tea and Truly in sharp declines. Market share fell 10bps YoY.
• Leading Brands: Modelo Especial and Corona Extra saw declines on a 4-week basis, while AB InBev's Pacifico grew +19.0% YoY.

Investment implications from the report include ratings:

• Outperform: ABI (price target €79), Constellation Brands (price target $225), Heineken.
• Market-Perform: Molson Coors (price target $65), Boston Beer (price target $270).

The analysis highlights a challenging market with widespread declines, but some brewers like Constellation sustained share gains despite volume issues.