2012年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan___Assessment_of_Costs_and_Benefits_of_the_Customs_94页_721kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Report: Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan

Core Content

This report evaluates the potential costs and benefits of Kazakhstan's participation in the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union (CU) using a 57-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It presents three scenarios: the Customs Union Current, the Customs Union Future—Pessimistic Outlook, and the Customs Union Future—Optimistic Outlook, analyzing the impact of the common external tariff (CET), trade facilitation, and nontariff barriers (NTBs) on Kazakhstan's economy.

Main Viewpoints

Customs Union Current (as of Spring 2011): Kazakhstan has implemented the CET with exceptions, but made little progress on reducing trade facilitation costs and NTBs. This has led to a loss of approximately 0.2% in real income per year. The CET has increased Kazakhstan’s average tariff rate from 6.7% to 11.1% (unweighted), and from 5.3% to 9.5% (trade-weighted). The report also notes that real wages and real returns on capital have declined by 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
Customs Union Future—Pessimistic Outlook: Kazakhstan fully implements the CET and eliminates exceptions, but sees no reduction in trade facilitation costs or NTBs. This results in a loss of approximately 0.3% in real income per year. The impact on real wages and capital returns is more severe than in the Current scenario, and the shift in trade patterns leads to more imports from the CU and CIS, especially in agriculture and chemicals.
Customs Union Future—Optimistic Outlook: Kazakhstan fully implements the CET, reduces trade facilitation costs and NTBs, including sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) measures. This scenario leads to a gain of approximately 1.5% in real income per year, with the largest component coming from reduced trade facilitation costs (about 1.4% of consumption). The reduction in NTBs partially offsets the loss from the CET, resulting in a net benefit.

Key Information

Trade Facilitation: Kazakhstan has high border costs, ranking 176th out of 183 countries in the 2011 World Bank Doing Business Survey. These costs are attributed to high administrative burdens, the number of documents required, and delays due to corruption.
Nontariff Barriers (NTBs): NTBs, particularly technical regulations and SPS measures, are significant barriers for Kazakh exporters to Russia. The report highlights the need for harmonization and mutual recognition agreements to reduce these barriers.
Sectoral Impacts: In the Current scenario, most manufacturing sectors expand, while service sectors decline. In the Optimistic scenario, the expansion of manufacturing is more pronounced, especially in chemical and leather products. However, some sectors such as wood products and rubber/plastic products contract in the Optimistic scenario compared to the Pessimistic one.
Labor and Capital Reallocation: The report estimates that about 0.2% of the labor force will need to move to other sectors in the Current scenario, and 0.5% in the Optimistic scenario. Capital is also reallocated between sectors.
Comparative Analysis with WTO Accession: The estimated gains from WTO accession are 6.7% of Kazakh consumption, which is four to five times higher than the most optimistic projections for the CU. This is primarily due to FDI liberalization in services and other reforms. The report emphasizes that WTO accession could bring greater benefits than the CU if the current high tariffs are reduced.

Sensitivity and Institutional Challenges

The report acknowledges the uncertainty in the success of reducing NTBs and trade facilitation costs, noting that these require significant institutional development and are difficult to predict.
The institutional environment in Kazakhstan is critical for trade facilitation and business development. Kazakhstan ranks relatively low on key indices such as the Doing Business Index, Logistics Performance Index, and Corruption Perceptions Index.
The customs union has the potential to reduce border costs through the elimination of trade borders, reduction of documents, and combating corruption. However, these improvements are unlikely to affect oil, gas, and mineral exports due to their transportation via pipelines and less exposure to border delays and bribes.

Future Research and Policy Implications

The report suggests several areas for future research, including the impact of a common economic space on Kazakhstan, the combination of trade policies for maximum benefit, and the feedback effects of the customs union on other Central Asian countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
It concludes that for Kazakhstan to benefit from the customs union, successful reduction of NTBs and trade facilitation costs is crucial. The institutional reforms required to achieve this are a major challenge and must be prioritized.
The long-term benefits of the customs union depend heavily on its ability to deepen integration, which is more than just tariff harmonization. This includes trade facilitation and NTB reduction, particularly in services and SPS measures.

Conclusion

The customs union is not a panacea for Kazakhstan's economic development. While it brings some benefits, especially in trade facilitation and NTB reduction, the losses from higher tariffs must be mitigated through institutional reforms. The report emphasizes that WTO accession could provide greater long-term benefits than the customs union, especially if Kazakhstan can liberalize its FDI barriers in the services sector and reduce tariffs.

Appendix Highlights

Appendix A provides detailed trade data.
Appendix B includes estimates of Dixit-Stiglitz elasticities of substitution.
Appendix C discusses trade facilitation and border costs.
Appendix D focuses on NTBs in Russia and Kazakhstan.
Appendix E summarizes the literature on technology diffusion and trade.
Appendix F presents a detailed analysis of tariff changes in Kazakhstan.
Appendix G outlines suggestions for future work and extensions.