深度-美国企业研究所-熊猫：中国最受欢迎的外交官（英文）-2021.6-15页_1mb

Summary of "Pandas: China's Most Popular Diplomats"

Core Content

This report explores the role of giant pandas in China's soft-power diplomacy, examining how the People's Republic of China (PRC) strategically selects countries to host pandas. The study highlights that panda diplomacy is not random but is closely tied to the host country's economic size, trade volume with China, and broader diplomatic relationships.

Main Points

• Panda Diplomacy as a Strategic Tool: Giant pandas are used as a form of soft-power diplomacy by the PRC, often coinciding with major diplomatic events and trade deals.
• Economic Factors Influence Panda Loans: The PRC tends to send pandas to large, developed economies with significant trade relationships. GDP and trade volume are key indicators for selection.
• Trade Volume is a Strong Predictor: Trade volume with China is a better indicator than GDP alone for determining the number of pandas a country receives.
• Panda Loans are Not a Long-Term Solution: While panda diplomacy can provide a short-term boost to bilateral relations, it is not sufficient to sustain long-term goodwill.
• Case Studies Highlight Impact: The report includes case studies of the United States and South Korea, showing that panda loans can improve economic relations but are not a panacea for diplomatic challenges.
• Coercive Aspects of Panda Diplomacy: There are instances where panda loans have been used as a leverage tool, such as during the Obama and Trump administrations, and in response to geopolitical tensions.

Key Information

Panda Loan Recipients and Economic Data

• The PRC has historically sent pandas to major trading partners, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Australia, and others.
• Trade volume, not just GDP, is a stronger determinant of panda loan success.
• The United States, Japan, and South Korea are the top recipients of panda loans in 2019, with the US receiving 11 pandas, Japan 9, and South Korea 4.

Economic and Trade Correlation

• Countries with higher trade volumes with China are more likely to host pandas.
• The PRC considers the host country's economic size and capacity to maintain panda habitats when deciding loan recipients.
• Import and export data are significant factors in panda loan decisions, with imports showing a slightly stronger correlation than exports.

Case Studies

• United States: The US has received pandas since 1972, with a peak in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The return of pandas in 2018 and 2019 under the Trump administration was linked to trade tensions.
• South Korea: Pandas were first gifted in 1994, but returned in 2000 due to financial constraints. They were reintroduced during the Xi Jinping era, aligning with trade agreements and diplomatic efforts.

Limitations of Panda Diplomacy

• Panda diplomacy is a limited tool and cannot replace substantive diplomatic or economic engagement.
• There are cases where panda loan deals failed, such as with Israel and New Zealand, suggesting that other factors may influence the success of these agreements.

Conclusion

• The PRC uses pandas as a deliberate part of its foreign policy, particularly with its largest trading partners.
• While effective in generating short-term goodwill, panda diplomacy is not a sustainable long-term strategy for maintaining positive relations.
• Policymakers should consider the broader implications of panda diplomacy, especially its potential coercive use and the reasons behind failed loan deals.

Appendix Highlights

• Regression analyses show a strong correlation between trade volume and panda loans.
• The PRC's panda loan policy is influenced by both trade volume and economic size, with import data showing a slightly stronger relationship than export data.

Author

• Linda Zhang is a research associate in Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. She is originally from Southwest China, the natural habitat of giant pandas.